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Coosa County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts

US Weekly Rainfall Departure

US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

Through Tonight.

An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms is moving across
Central Alabama this afternoon. This activity is tracking along a
stalled frontal boundary that will lift back to the north
overnight. Within the warm, moist airmass south of the now lifting
warm front, scattered to numerous showers are possible. This
activity is not expected to be strong or severe. Temperatures
tonight will be rather muggy, with lows in the mid 50s north to
mid 60s south. 

Looking toward tomorrow, not much has changed from what was
discussed in the previous long term discussion. There remains 
some uncertainty regarding the extent of rain coverage early 
Monday morning (either just to our north or along the Gulf coast),
and how that affects the airmass through the morning hours.
There is good model agreement regarding the development of a 
broken line of storms occurring just to our west or over NW 
Central Alabama by late afternoon, and pushing eastward through 
the evening hours. The expected impacts and coverage areas have 
not changed. We made slight adjustment to the timing this
afternoon and updated graphics will be out shortly. We will 
continue to refine timing tonight and tomorrow morning.


Monday through Saturday.

Confidence that the area will see significant severe 
thunderstorms continues to increase for Monday, as models are 
coming into better agreement on the synoptic pattern. As usual, 
there are some mesoscale details that will determine the exact 
timing and type of threat. Models are coming into better agreement
with the timing and placement of a compact upper low that will 
eject out of the western CONUS trough into northeast New Mexico 
this afternoon. It will deamplify slightly as it moves eastward to
the TN/KY border region as it approaches confluent flow 
associated with the eastern Canadian trough, but still remain a 
potent system with strong height falls and a neutral tilt. A 
strong WSW mid and upper level jet max (~90kt at 250 mb, ~70 kts 
at 500 mb, ~65 kts at 700mb) will be located to its south, which 
will move over Central Alabama. A ~35-40kt southwesterly LLJ at 
850mb will accompany a 998mb surface low moving across Tennessee. 
This surface low will be close to steady-state in strength during
the afternoon, before effectively splitting into two pieces as it
encounters the southern Appalachians Monday night. A trailing 
pre-frontal trough/dry line feature will move into West Alabama 
from Mississippi Monday afternoon. 

Starting off Monday morning, not expecting to see a whole lot of
activity on the radar due to dry air and capping aloft associated
with an elevated mixed layer and weak shortwave ridging aloft.
Showers and storms associated with Sunday night's shortwave will
likely be mainly north and east of the forecast area. But with 
low-level isentropic lift there could be some light showers, and 
perhaps some isolated leftover thunderstorms from Sunday night.
There will probably be some low stratus as well. One possible
wrench in the forecast is a secondary LLJ in the NAM and some of
the global models that these models show causing an increase in
moisture and isentropic lift across southeast Alabama and the
Florida panhandle during the late morning with associated
precipitation. This could affect destabilization in the afternoon,
or if accompanied by thunderstorms could result in an isolated 
severe threat developing earlier than expected in the far 
southeast counties. However, the CAMs are much further east with 
this activity, closer to the Florida Big Bend and South Georgia. 
These may have a better handle on the situation if they are 
handling Sunday night's preceding convection better than the 
global models. Also, the models that show this feature all still 
indicate very strong instability developing by Monday afternoon 
across the entire area, so it may not matter much. 

Most of the day on Monday may be a nice warm sunny spring day, but
folks should not let their guard down. This daytime heating will
allow CAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg to develop due to
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. The 00Z NAM did show an
unlikely situation where low stratus clouds never mix out all and
surface temperatures remaining much cooler, preventing convective
initiation. But this seemed extremely unlikely given the strong 
southwesterly flow and dry air aloft. The 6Z NAM has already
trended back in line with strong daytime heating, but is slower
with the storms than the guidance consensus as is its typical bias.
The WRF-ARW, NSSL WRF, and WRF-NMM were in good agreement in 
explosive thunderstorm development along the pre-frontal trough/ 
dry line as upper- level forcing arrives, between about 4PM and 
7PM roughly along/northwest of the I-59 corridor. These storms 
will probably initiate right over Central Alabama rather than 
moving in from Mississippi. The convective mode will be a broken 
line of semi- discrete supercells, due to westerly 55-60kt 0-6 km 
bulk shear vectors orthogonal to the initiating boundary. Dry air 
aloft/capping will likely inhibit storms from developing ahead of 
this line, except perhaps in the far northeast counties, so 
confidence in timing out this line is increasing. The environment 
will be very favorable for large to very large hail to develop due
to the rotating updrafts and fat CAPE profiles more typical of 
the Plains than the Southeast, with significant hail >2" diameter 
appearing likely with some of the storms. Damaging winds will also
occur with the hail-enhanced downdrafts due to high DCAPE. 

Concerning the tornado potential, the 850mb-925mb flow will be a
bit veered to the southwest and not extremely strong. This veered
flow will probably mix down to the surface; the NAM is more backed
but does not seem to be mixing the boundary layer properly as
mentioned related to the spurious looking low stratus mentioned
above. The surface low will also not be deepening, so isallobaric
flow will not be a factor. So near-surface streamwise vorticity
does not appear to be enhanced, with the critical angles between
the 0-0.5km shear vector and 0-0.5km storm-relative flow being
mainly well below the optimal 90 degree angle. The presence of 
strong rotating updrafts in a high CAPE environment with around 
200m2/s2 0-1km SRH can compensate somewhat for the less than 
favorable wind directions. Therefore, think there is a threat for 
a couple to maybe a few tornadoes, especially the further north 
you go closer to the surface low, and especially right around/just
after sunset when the nocturnal LLJ begins to strengthen. One 
potential area of concern for strong tornadoes, however, is the 
far northeast counties where flow could remain a bit more backed, 
near a lingering wedge front over north Georgia. Confidence 
remains too low to mention the potential for a strong/significant 
tornado in the HWO/graphics, but we will continue to monitor 
closely as we get closer. Either way, these will be dangerous 
storms that everyone needs to pay attention to. Did opt to lower 
some of the far southern counties from an enhanced risk to a 
slight risk in our local forecast. There is still certainly a 
severe threat in those areas that people need to be aware of, with
plenty of instability present, but storm coverage is expected to 
be more isolated down there due to weaker forcing. 

Looking briefly at the extended, another shortwave will bring a
chance of showers Tuesday, but nothing severe is expected. Lows
may drop to near freezing Wednesday night. Models are not in good
agreement with a shortwave/possible frontal passage in the
Friday/Saturday timeframe, but generally indicate a lack of
significant moisture return ahead of it.


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For COOSA County
800 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018
BIRMINGHAM     CLOUDY    66  54  65 CALM      29.86F                  
MONTGOMERY     CLOUDY    68  67  96 N6        29.83F FOG              
SHELBY CO ARPT CLOUDY    62  59  90 CALM      29.85S                  
MAXWELL AFB    CLOUDY    65  63  94 NE10      29.82F                  
GREENVILLE     CLOUDY    66  63  90 CALM      29.82S                  
SELMA          CLOUDY    66  64  94 CALM      29.82F                  
PRATTVILLE     CLOUDY    65  65 100 NE3       29.83F                  
BESSEMER       CLOUDY    61  58  90 CALM      29.85F                  
TALLADEGA      CLOUDY    66  53  61 SW5       29.85F                  
PELL CITY      CLEAR     63  55  77 CALM      29.85S                  
MARION         CLOUDY    65  65 100 S6        29.82S FOG              
SYLACAUGA      CLOUDY    62  62 100 CALM      29.85F                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 800pm CDT, Sunday March 18, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 57 degrees north, near 66 degrees central, and near 68 degrees south. Current sky conditions are mostly cloudy north, cloudy central, and mostly cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 77%, and the dew point is near 50 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 65%, and the dew point is near 54 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 65 degrees. Winds are from the north at 5 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 68 degrees at Montgomery, Mobile, Evergreen, and Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 57 degrees at Decatur.

Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For COOSA County, AL

650 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

 DAY ONE  Through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is anticipated overnight.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Monday through Saturday.

Severe storms are likely across all of Central Alabama on Monday, 
mainly between 4 PM and midnight. These storms will be capable of 
producing tornadoes, large hail up to the size of tennis balls, and 
wind gusts to 70 mph. At this time, the threat appears to be
slightly higher north of the US Highway 80 and Interstate 85 
corridor, but all of Central Alabama should remain aware of the 
severe thunderstorm potential on Monday and take the appropriate 
precautionary measures. There is a possibility that this risk may 
need to be upgraded, so keep up to date on the forecast heading into 
Monday morning.

Cooler air moving in behind the system will result in the potential 
for lows at or below freezing across parts of north central Alabama 
Wednesday night.


Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed 
into this evening. Activation will be needed Monday afternoon and 

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For COOSA County, Alabama
802 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Rain showers and chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be severe in the evening. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming cloudy. A 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Colder. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.

Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s.

Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.

Mostly clear. Lows around 40.

Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s.

Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.

Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s.

Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   MAR 24-28 MAR 26-APR 1    MAR       MAR-MAY                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above     Normal      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Sunday March 18, 2018 the 77th Day of Year

Declination -0.550000
Distance 0.999721 AU
Rise 06:54 EDT Set 18:59 EDT
Transit Meridian 12:55 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:30 EDT Ends 19:22 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

The great "Tri-State Tornado" occurred, the most deadly tornado in U.S.
history. The tornado claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro IL and
148 at West Frankfort IL), and caused seventeen million dollars property
damage. It cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile
wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM.
The tornado leveled a school in West Frankfort IL, and picked up sixteen
students setting them down unharmed 150 yards away. Seven other tornadoes
claimed an additional 97 lives that day. (David Ludlum)
High winds accompanied a low pressure system from the Rocky Mountains to
the Great Lakes. Winds gusted to 100 mph at Hastings NE, and reached 115
mph at Hays KS. High winds caused two million dollars damage in Kansas.
Fire burned 50,000 forest acres in eastern Oklahoma. (17th-19th) (The
Weather Channel)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky