A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
A cold front is approaching the area from the northwest this
afternoon. Not much cloud cover (and no precip) associated with
the front as it is pushing across northern Arkansas and Tennessee.
The surface low associated with the front will push eastward
across the Central Appalachians and Delmarva tonight, with the
upper level pattern becoming more zonal. The front will slow
without a stronger upper level push and remain north of the area
Winds have been breezy this afternoon due to the tightened
pressure gradient, but will relax this evening. Skies will remain
mostly clear, with temperatures falling into the 30s.
Thursday through Tuesday.
The upper-level pattern will change across the area by tomorrow,
in the wake of today's clipper system. High amplitude ridging will
remain in place along the West Coast, with troughing over the
northeastern CONUS, but a positively tilted trough axis will set
up over the Desert Southwest and the Plains. Southern portions of
the trough will form a cutoff low centered over northwest Mexico
near the Gulf, while northern portions of the trough will push
eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as a shearing out
shortwave trough, in response to a strong upper low digging into
Ontario. The net result for Central Alabama will be northwesterly
upper-level flow shifting to westerly and then southwesterly
through the beginning of next week. At the surface, as mentioned
above, the front associated with today's clipper system will be
slowing stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow. A
very dry air mass will remain in place over the area with little
in the way of cloudcover expected along the front, but there will
be some cirrus across the southern counties due to the
strengthening southern stream jet. The front will result in a
temperature gradient across the area, with readings struggling to
get out of the upper 40s along the northern row of counties, while
the far southeastern counties will see highs around 60.
The front will make another push southward Thursday night and make
it all the way through the forecast area this time, as high
pressure builds into the Southern Plains and low pressure develops
over Michigan. Northerly low-level flow behind the front will
prevent any low-level moisture return ahead of the shortwave
trough moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday.
Therefore the shortwave will mainly just produce increased mid and
high level clouds despite favorable QG forcing for ascent. Some
virga or a stray sprinkle is possible across the far southern
counties, but dry air below 600 mb will prevent any measurable
precipitation. With 925 mb temperatures falling below 0C across
the northern counties, northwest winds, and high clouds, a cool
day is expected with highs in the 40s north of I-85 and low 40s
across the northern counties. A surface ridge axis will move over
the area Friday night. This will result in almost ideal
radiational cooling conditions with the exception being a few
cirrus clouds. Lows will fall into the 20s in many areas with some
lower 20s possible in the typically coldest locations.
The cutoff low over northwest Mexico will eject northeastward as a
shearing shortwave trough over the weekend in response to a kicker
trough moving into the Rockies/High Plains. Southerly flow ahead
of this system will result in milder temperatures on Saturday, but
dry air will remain in place through the daytime hours. A 40-50 kt
LLJ will strengthen over Mississippi Saturday night, resulting in
increasing rain chances after midnight in the west Saturday night
due to increasing moisture/isentropic lift and passage of a warm
front aloft. PWATs increase to around 1.5 to 1.8 inches Sunday,
around the 95th percentile for December. With a 40-50 kt LLJ,
widespread soaking rains are expected. Lack of instability,
antecedent conditions, and the fairly progressive nature of the
system should prevent a flooding threat unless it slows down too
much. There is always the possibility for models to be too quick
with ejecting a southern stream cutoff low, but the strength of
the kicker trough and good model and ensemble agreement increases
confidence in the timing, and PoPs were raised substantially for
Sunday. A weak surface low may develop, while the surface warm
front will try to lift northward into our southern counties,
followed by the passage of a cold front. With rain falling into an
air mass with dew points in the 30s initially, northward
progression of the warm front will likely be hampered by
evaporative cooling processes, and may end up staying just south
of the area. Models indicate some weak elevated instability over
our southern counties, but surface-based instability looks
negligible with dew points struggling to reach 60. Therefore,
severe storms are not expected at this time, but will continue to
monitor just in case due to the strong shear.
Models begin to diverge Sunday night. The ECMWF is quicker with
the exit of precipitation Sunday night, but has trended towards
the GFS in maintaining southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough
over the southern High Plains. It remains quicker with the
ejection of this trough during the first half of the week, on the
fast side of its ensemble members. Will favor a slower solution
similar to the GFS and the EPS mean, given the lack of a strong
kicker in this case and strengthening ridging over the Bahamas,
with the front stalling to the southeast of the area and post-
frontal rains continuing under southwest flow aloft, with the
highest chances in the southeast. Temperatures remain plenty warm
to prevent non-liquid precipitation concerns. Dry air moves in by
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For COOSA County
900 PM CST WED DEC 13 2017
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BIRMINGHAM CLEAR 47 25 42 SW6 29.91R
MONTGOMERY CLEAR 46 28 49 S9 29.94F
SHELBY CO ARPT CLEAR 44 28 53 VRB3 29.90R
MAXWELL AFB CLEAR 45 28 51 SW5 29.92S
GREENVILLE FAIR 45 27 49 SW6 29.94F
SELMA FAIR 46 32 57 SW8 29.93S
PRATTVILLE FAIR 46 30 52 SW5 29.93S
BESSEMER FAIR 45 26 47 SW12 29.90R
TALLADEGA FAIR 44 25 46 CALM 29.91R
PELL CITY CLEAR 39 27 60 S5 29.90R
MARION FAIR 44 30 57 SW5 29.92S
SYLACAUGA FAIR 46 30 54 SW6 29.91R
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 900pm CST, Wednesday December 13, 2017
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 45 degrees north, near 47 degrees central, and near 48 degrees south. Current sky conditions are clear north, clear central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 49%, and the dew point is near 27 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 42%, and the dew point is near 25 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 65%, and the dew point is near 37 degrees. Winds are from the southwest at 10 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 6 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 10 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 48 degrees at Mobile. The lowest temperature is 35 degrees at Gadsden.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For COOSA County, AL
337 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017
DAY ONE Outlook through Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Thursday through Tuesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For COOSA County, Alabama
1002 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Southwest winds 5 to
THURSDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds
around 5 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest
winds around 5 mph.
FRIDAY Cooler. Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Northwest
winds around 5 mph in the evening then becoming light.
SATURDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
SATURDAY NIGHT Not as cool. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance
of rain showers after midnight. Lows around 40.
SUNDAY Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Lows around 50.
MONDAY Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs around 60.
MONDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain.
Lows in the lower 40s.
TUESDAY Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs
TUESDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
WEDNESDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
DEC 19-23 DEC 21-27 DEC DEC-FEB
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Wednesday December 13, 2017 the 347th Day of Year
Distance 0.999724 AU
Rise 07:44 EST Set 17:41 EST
Transit Meridian 12:42 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:17 EST Ends 18:08 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
A heavy snowstorm kicked off the snowiest winter in modern records for
western New England. (The Weather Channel)
Record cold weather gripped the nation. The low temperature in Lexington, KY
fell to -6 degrees (record low on this date), -3 at Covington and -3 at Paducah.
Severe cold conditions went as far south as Florida with a hard freeze. Morning
lows reached 35 degrees at Miami, 18 degrees at Tampa, and 12 degrees at
Jacksonville. It was the coldest December weather of the 20th century and caused
millions of dollars damage to crops and foliage. In Georgia, the morning low of
9 degrees below zero at Blairsville established a state record for the month of
A major winter storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Southern
Rockies and the Southern High Plains. Snowfall totals in New Mexico ranged
up to 25 inches at Cedar Crest, with up to three feet of snow reported in
the higher elevations. Winds of 75 mph, with gusts to 124 mph, were
reported northeast of Albuquerque NM. El Paso TX was buried under 22.4
inches of snow, including a single storm record of 16.8 inches in 24 hours.
The snowfall total surpassed their previous record for an entire winter
season of 18.4 inches. Record cold was experienced the next three nights as
readings dipped into the single numbers. High winds ushering unseasonably
cold air into the southwestern U.S. gusted to 100 mph at Grapevine CA. (The
National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Low pressure off the Atlantic coast produced up to a foot of snow in
eastern Nassau County and western Suffolk County of southeastern New York
State. Mild weather prevailed across the western half of the country. Nine
cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Goodland
KS with a reading of 74 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm
Strong northwesterly winds, ushering bitterly cold arctic air into the
central U.S., produced squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region.
Snowfall totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 24 inches at Manistique.
Nine cities in Arkansas and Texas reported record low temperatures for the
date, including Calico Rock AR with a reading of 4 degrees above zero.
(Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky