A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
A cold front is approaching the area from the northwest this
afternoon. Not much cloud cover (and no precip) associated with
the front as it is pushing across northern Arkansas and Tennessee.
The surface low associated with the front will push eastward
across the Central Appalachians and Delmarva tonight, with the
upper level pattern becoming more zonal. The front will slow
without a stronger upper level push and remain north of the area
Winds have been breezy this afternoon due to the tightened
pressure gradient, but will relax this evening. Skies will remain
mostly clear, with temperatures falling into the 30s.
Thursday through Tuesday.
The upper-level pattern will change across the area by tomorrow,
in the wake of today's clipper system. High amplitude ridging will
remain in place along the West Coast, with troughing over the
northeastern CONUS, but a positively tilted trough axis will set
up over the Desert Southwest and the Plains. Southern portions of
the trough will form a cutoff low centered over northwest Mexico
near the Gulf, while northern portions of the trough will push
eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as a shearing out
shortwave trough, in response to a strong upper low digging into
Ontario. The net result for Central Alabama will be northwesterly
upper-level flow shifting to westerly and then southwesterly
through the beginning of next week. At the surface, as mentioned
above, the front associated with today's clipper system will be
slowing stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow. A
very dry air mass will remain in place over the area with little
in the way of cloudcover expected along the front, but there will
be some cirrus across the southern counties due to the
strengthening southern stream jet. The front will result in a
temperature gradient across the area, with readings struggling to
get out of the upper 40s along the northern row of counties, while
the far southeastern counties will see highs around 60.
The front will make another push southward Thursday night and make
it all the way through the forecast area this time, as high
pressure builds into the Southern Plains and low pressure develops
over Michigan. Northerly low-level flow behind the front will
prevent any low-level moisture return ahead of the shortwave
trough moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday.
Therefore the shortwave will mainly just produce increased mid and
high level clouds despite favorable QG forcing for ascent. Some
virga or a stray sprinkle is possible across the far southern
counties, but dry air below 600 mb will prevent any measurable
precipitation. With 925 mb temperatures falling below 0C across
the northern counties, northwest winds, and high clouds, a cool
day is expected with highs in the 40s north of I-85 and low 40s
across the northern counties. A surface ridge axis will move over
the area Friday night. This will result in almost ideal
radiational cooling conditions with the exception being a few
cirrus clouds. Lows will fall into the 20s in many areas with some
lower 20s possible in the typically coldest locations.
The cutoff low over northwest Mexico will eject northeastward as a
shearing shortwave trough over the weekend in response to a kicker
trough moving into the Rockies/High Plains. Southerly flow ahead
of this system will result in milder temperatures on Saturday, but
dry air will remain in place through the daytime hours. A 40-50 kt
LLJ will strengthen over Mississippi Saturday night, resulting in
increasing rain chances after midnight in the west Saturday night
due to increasing moisture/isentropic lift and passage of a warm
front aloft. PWATs increase to around 1.5 to 1.8 inches Sunday,
around the 95th percentile for December. With a 40-50 kt LLJ,
widespread soaking rains are expected. Lack of instability,
antecedent conditions, and the fairly progressive nature of the
system should prevent a flooding threat unless it slows down too
much. There is always the possibility for models to be too quick
with ejecting a southern stream cutoff low, but the strength of
the kicker trough and good model and ensemble agreement increases
confidence in the timing, and PoPs were raised substantially for
Sunday. A weak surface low may develop, while the surface warm
front will try to lift northward into our southern counties,
followed by the passage of a cold front. With rain falling into an
air mass with dew points in the 30s initially, northward
progression of the warm front will likely be hampered by
evaporative cooling processes, and may end up staying just south
of the area. Models indicate some weak elevated instability over
our southern counties, but surface-based instability looks
negligible with dew points struggling to reach 60. Therefore,
severe storms are not expected at this time, but will continue to
monitor just in case due to the strong shear.
Models begin to diverge Sunday night. The ECMWF is quicker with
the exit of precipitation Sunday night, but has trended towards
the GFS in maintaining southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough
over the southern High Plains. It remains quicker with the
ejection of this trough during the first half of the week, on the
fast side of its ensemble members. Will favor a slower solution
similar to the GFS and the EPS mean, given the lack of a strong
kicker in this case and strengthening ridging over the Bahamas,
with the front stalling to the southeast of the area and post-
frontal rains continuing under southwest flow aloft, with the
highest chances in the southeast. Temperatures remain plenty warm
to prevent non-liquid precipitation concerns. Dry air moves in by
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CONECUH County
200 AM CST THU DEC 14 2017
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GREENVILLE CLOUDY 38 30 73 CALM 29.94S
EVERGREEN CLOUDY 37 32 82 CALM 29.96F
ATMORE* N/A N/A N/A N/A SW3 N/A
ANDALUSIA/OPP CLOUDY 47 36 65 SW5 29.96S
ANDALUSIA* N/A 43 37 81 SW6 29.95F
FLORALA APT CLOUDY 42 36 79 CALM 29.99S
FLORALA* N/A 39 36 87 CALM 30.64F
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 100am CST, Thursday December 14, 2017
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 43 degrees north, near 44 degrees central, and near 48 degrees south. Current sky conditions are clear north, clear central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 53%, and the dew point is near 27 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 55%, and the dew point is near 29 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 76%, and the dew point is near 41 degrees. Winds are from the southwest at 8 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 8 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 3 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 49 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 35 degrees at Troy.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CONECUH County, AL
426 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017
DAY ONE Today and Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Thursday through Tuesday
Potential for strong to marginally severe storms Sunday into
Monday, with the primary threats being damaging straight line
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of SkyWarn severe spotter networks is not expected
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For CONECUH County, Alabama
248 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Southwest winds
up to 5 mph.
THURSDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds up to
THURSDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming
mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. Light winds becoming north up to
5 mph after midnight.
FRIDAY Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. North
winds up to 5 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT Colder. Mostly cloudy in the evening then
becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 30. North winds up to 5 mph.
SATURDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
SATURDAY NIGHT Not as cool. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance
of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s.
SUNDAY Warmer. Rain showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Highs around 70. Chance of precipitation
SUNDAY NIGHT Warmer. Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms. Near steady temperature in
the upper 50s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
MONDAY Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent.
MONDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain.
Lows in the upper 40s.
TUESDAY Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs
in the mid 60s.
TUESDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
DEC 19-23 DEC 21-27 DEC DEC-FEB
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Thursday December 14, 2017 the 348th Day of Year
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:45 EST Set 17:41 EST
Transit Meridian 12:43 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:18 EST Ends 18:08 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
Wet and cold: Louisville, KY set both a record low (2 degrees) and a daily
precipitation record (2.21 inches). (The high temperature that day was 42.)
The temperature at Helena MT plunged 79 degrees in 24 hours, and 88 degrees
in 34 hours. The mercury plummeted from 63 above to 25 below zero. At
Fairfield MT the temperature plunged 84 degrees in just 12 hours, from 63
at Noon to 21 below zero at midnight. (David Ludlum)
A powerful storm spread heavy snow from the Southern High Plains to the
Middle Mississippi Valley, and produced severe thunderstorms in the Lower
Mississippi Valley. During the evening a tornado hit West Memphis TN
killing six persons and injuring two hundred others. The tornado left 1500
persons homeless, and left all of the residents of Crittendon County
without electricity. Kansas City MO was blanketed with 10.8 inches of snow,
a 24 hour record for December, and snowfall totals in the Oklahoma
panhandle ranged up to 14 inches. Strong winds, gusting to 63 mph at Austin
TX, ushered arctic cold into the Great Plains, and caused considerable
blowing and drifting of snow. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
Blowing snow was reported in western Kansas, as snow and gusty winds
plagued the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. Colorado Springs CO
reported thirteen inches of snow. Low pressure in Wisconsin brought heavy
snow to the Lake Superior snowbelt area, with 22 inches reported at
Marquette MI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
High winds and heavy snow prevailed from Montana to Colorado. Snowfall
totals in Wyoming ranged up to 20 inches at Burgess Junction, leaving up to
48 inches on the ground in the northeast sections of the state. Wind gusts
in Colorado reached 87 mph south of the town of Rollinsville. Strong
northwesterly winds continued to produce heavy snow squalls in the Great
Lakes Region. Totals in northeastern Lower Michigan ranged up to 29 inches
at Hubbard Lake, with 28 inches reported at Posen. Two day totals in
northeastern Wisconsin ranged up to thirty inches. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky