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Conecuh County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.

Through Tonight.

An area of rain with embedded thunderstorms is moving across
Central Alabama this afternoon. This activity is tracking along a
stalled frontal boundary that will lift back to the north
overnight. Within the warm, moist airmass south of the now lifting
warm front, scattered to numerous showers are possible. This
activity is not expected to be strong or severe. Temperatures
tonight will be rather muggy, with lows in the mid 50s north to
mid 60s south. 

Looking toward tomorrow, not much has changed from what was
discussed in the previous long term discussion. There remains 
some uncertainty regarding the extent of rain coverage early 
Monday morning (either just to our north or along the Gulf coast),
and how that affects the airmass through the morning hours.
There is good model agreement regarding the development of a 
broken line of storms occurring just to our west or over NW 
Central Alabama by late afternoon, and pushing eastward through 
the evening hours. The expected impacts and coverage areas have 
not changed. We made slight adjustment to the timing this
afternoon and updated graphics will be out shortly. We will 
continue to refine timing tonight and tomorrow morning.


Monday through Saturday.

Confidence that the area will see significant severe 
thunderstorms continues to increase for Monday, as models are 
coming into better agreement on the synoptic pattern. As usual, 
there are some mesoscale details that will determine the exact 
timing and type of threat. Models are coming into better agreement
with the timing and placement of a compact upper low that will 
eject out of the western CONUS trough into northeast New Mexico 
this afternoon. It will deamplify slightly as it moves eastward to
the TN/KY border region as it approaches confluent flow 
associated with the eastern Canadian trough, but still remain a 
potent system with strong height falls and a neutral tilt. A 
strong WSW mid and upper level jet max (~90kt at 250 mb, ~70 kts 
at 500 mb, ~65 kts at 700mb) will be located to its south, which 
will move over Central Alabama. A ~35-40kt southwesterly LLJ at 
850mb will accompany a 998mb surface low moving across Tennessee. 
This surface low will be close to steady-state in strength during
the afternoon, before effectively splitting into two pieces as it
encounters the southern Appalachians Monday night. A trailing 
pre-frontal trough/dry line feature will move into West Alabama 
from Mississippi Monday afternoon. 

Starting off Monday morning, not expecting to see a whole lot of
activity on the radar due to dry air and capping aloft associated
with an elevated mixed layer and weak shortwave ridging aloft.
Showers and storms associated with Sunday night's shortwave will
likely be mainly north and east of the forecast area. But with 
low-level isentropic lift there could be some light showers, and 
perhaps some isolated leftover thunderstorms from Sunday night.
There will probably be some low stratus as well. One possible
wrench in the forecast is a secondary LLJ in the NAM and some of
the global models that these models show causing an increase in
moisture and isentropic lift across southeast Alabama and the
Florida panhandle during the late morning with associated
precipitation. This could affect destabilization in the afternoon,
or if accompanied by thunderstorms could result in an isolated 
severe threat developing earlier than expected in the far 
southeast counties. However, the CAMs are much further east with 
this activity, closer to the Florida Big Bend and South Georgia. 
These may have a better handle on the situation if they are 
handling Sunday night's preceding convection better than the 
global models. Also, the models that show this feature all still 
indicate very strong instability developing by Monday afternoon 
across the entire area, so it may not matter much. 

Most of the day on Monday may be a nice warm sunny spring day, but
folks should not let their guard down. This daytime heating will
allow CAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg to develop due to
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. The 00Z NAM did show an
unlikely situation where low stratus clouds never mix out all and
surface temperatures remaining much cooler, preventing convective
initiation. But this seemed extremely unlikely given the strong 
southwesterly flow and dry air aloft. The 6Z NAM has already
trended back in line with strong daytime heating, but is slower
with the storms than the guidance consensus as is its typical bias.
The WRF-ARW, NSSL WRF, and WRF-NMM were in good agreement in 
explosive thunderstorm development along the pre-frontal trough/ 
dry line as upper- level forcing arrives, between about 4PM and 
7PM roughly along/northwest of the I-59 corridor. These storms 
will probably initiate right over Central Alabama rather than 
moving in from Mississippi. The convective mode will be a broken 
line of semi- discrete supercells, due to westerly 55-60kt 0-6 km 
bulk shear vectors orthogonal to the initiating boundary. Dry air 
aloft/capping will likely inhibit storms from developing ahead of 
this line, except perhaps in the far northeast counties, so 
confidence in timing out this line is increasing. The environment 
will be very favorable for large to very large hail to develop due
to the rotating updrafts and fat CAPE profiles more typical of 
the Plains than the Southeast, with significant hail >2" diameter 
appearing likely with some of the storms. Damaging winds will also
occur with the hail-enhanced downdrafts due to high DCAPE. 

Concerning the tornado potential, the 850mb-925mb flow will be a
bit veered to the southwest and not extremely strong. This veered
flow will probably mix down to the surface; the NAM is more backed
but does not seem to be mixing the boundary layer properly as
mentioned related to the spurious looking low stratus mentioned
above. The surface low will also not be deepening, so isallobaric
flow will not be a factor. So near-surface streamwise vorticity
does not appear to be enhanced, with the critical angles between
the 0-0.5km shear vector and 0-0.5km storm-relative flow being
mainly well below the optimal 90 degree angle. The presence of 
strong rotating updrafts in a high CAPE environment with around 
200m2/s2 0-1km SRH can compensate somewhat for the less than 
favorable wind directions. Therefore, think there is a threat for 
a couple to maybe a few tornadoes, especially the further north 
you go closer to the surface low, and especially right around/just
after sunset when the nocturnal LLJ begins to strengthen. One 
potential area of concern for strong tornadoes, however, is the 
far northeast counties where flow could remain a bit more backed, 
near a lingering wedge front over north Georgia. Confidence 
remains too low to mention the potential for a strong/significant 
tornado in the HWO/graphics, but we will continue to monitor 
closely as we get closer. Either way, these will be dangerous 
storms that everyone needs to pay attention to. Did opt to lower 
some of the far southern counties from an enhanced risk to a 
slight risk in our local forecast. There is still certainly a 
severe threat in those areas that people need to be aware of, with
plenty of instability present, but storm coverage is expected to 
be more isolated down there due to weaker forcing. 

Looking briefly at the extended, another shortwave will bring a
chance of showers Tuesday, but nothing severe is expected. Lows
may drop to near freezing Wednesday night. Models are not in good
agreement with a shortwave/possible frontal passage in the
Friday/Saturday timeframe, but generally indicate a lack of
significant moisture return ahead of it.


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CONECUH County
800 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018
GREENVILLE     CLOUDY    66  63  90 CALM      29.82S                  
EVERGREEN      CLOUDY    68  65  90 CALM      29.84S                  
ATMORE*          N/A    N/A N/A N/A W2        30.49F                  
ANDALUSIA/OPP  LGT RAIN  68  65  90 E5        29.83S                  
ANDALUSIA*       N/A     64  64 100 W6        29.84S                  
FLORALA APT    CLOUDY    66  64  93 E3        29.85F FOG              
FLORALA*         N/A     66  64  94 NE3       30.48S                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 700pm CDT, Sunday March 18, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 59 degrees north, near 67 degrees central, and near 68 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, cloudy central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 69%, and the dew point is near 49 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 61%, and the dew point is near 53 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 65 degrees. Winds are calm north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 6 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 68 degrees at Montgomery, Mobile, Evergreen, and Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 59 degrees at Muscle Shoals and Decatur.

Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CONECUH County, AL

943 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight.

Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the region today, mainly this afternoon and evening,
and especially over interior sections of the forecast area roughly 
north of a Lucedale to Bay Minette to Crestview line. Some of the 
storms that develop could become severe with damaging winds being 
the primary threat, although some large hail and an isolated tornado
is not out of the question. The storms will continue into the late 
evening hours before decreasing in coverage and intensity overnight.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop and continue to be a
possibility across the region Monday and Monday evening. Some of the
storms could again become severe, especially along and northeast of 
a Camden to Andalusia line. Storms will again be capable of producing
large hail, damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado.


Emergency management and spotter activation may be needed.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For CONECUH County, Alabama
358 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Cooler. Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs around 70. West winds 5 to 15 mph.

Colder. Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.

Clear. Lows in the upper 30s.

Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.

Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.

Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.

Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.

Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 70s.

Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.

Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 80s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   MAR 24-28 MAR 26-APR 1    MAR       MAR-MAY                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above     Normal      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Sunday March 18, 2018 the 77th Day of Year

Declination -0.550000
Distance 0.999721 AU
Rise 06:54 EDT Set 18:59 EDT
Transit Meridian 12:55 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:30 EDT Ends 19:22 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

The great "Tri-State Tornado" occurred, the most deadly tornado in U.S.
history. The tornado claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro IL and
148 at West Frankfort IL), and caused seventeen million dollars property
damage. It cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile
wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM.
The tornado leveled a school in West Frankfort IL, and picked up sixteen
students setting them down unharmed 150 yards away. Seven other tornadoes
claimed an additional 97 lives that day. (David Ludlum)
High winds accompanied a low pressure system from the Rocky Mountains to
the Great Lakes. Winds gusted to 100 mph at Hastings NE, and reached 115
mph at Hays KS. High winds caused two million dollars damage in Kansas.
Fire burned 50,000 forest acres in eastern Oklahoma. (17th-19th) (The
Weather Channel)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky