A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
Very little change expected in the temperature department
overnight. Low clouds will remain socked in at most locations
holding the temperatures close to where they are now. Lows in the
40s north and central, 60s southeast. Rain has diminished for the
most part at the time being. Some drizzle still showing up from
time to time. There may be some redevelopment of some showers and
this will be handled shortly with the early morning update.
Dense fog will also be an issue. Currently have all but the
southeast in the advisory. Will have to keep an eye on those areas
to make sure nothing develops there too. The quasi-stationary
front is hung up in the area too.
Previous short-term discussion:
A quasi-stationary front was located near TOI and EUF early this
evening. The front really made no progress northward as a weak
wave moved along it this afternoon. This front will continue to
meander across the far southern reaches of the area tonight and
Monday. Quite an airmass difference across the front with highs in
the 40s north and 70s southeast. South to west winds will
continue in the lower levels just above the front. This moisture
will ride over a relatively cool airmass and low clouds and fog
are expected. Some of the fog will become dense at times, with
visibilities 1/2 mile or less. Will hold off on an advisory at
this time and try to narrow down an area better. An advisory may
become necessary and will monitor observations closely for a later
update. Rain will remain possible close to the front south with
Previous short-term discussion:
Light rain with a few pockets of moderate rain continues to
overspread the area as a weak surface boundary sets up across the
southern half of the state. The rain should gradually end from
west to east through the late afternoon and evening hours as the
boundary weakens and stalls to the south. It is likely that the
steady light rain will become more showery and drizzle through the
overnight as low clouds and some patchy dense fog develops.
Expect this pattern to continue until the next potent shortwave
ejects from the west early Wednesday.
Monday through Sunday:
Southwesterly anti-cyclonic flow will be in place on Monday around
deep layer ridging centered between Florida and Cuba. A split flow
pattern will remain in place with a southern cutoff low over the
Desert Southwest and northern stream troughing over Canada. A
precipitation-reinforced quasi-stationary front will extend from
the Louisiana Gulf Coast northeastward toward southeast Alabama.
The eastern portion of this boundary may drift southward during
the morning following passage of a weak meso-low. Precipitation
forecast remains challenging due to weak/broad forcing associated
with weak waves in the southwest flow, and how quickly a residual
cold pool/area of dry air erodes in the wake of today's activity.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight/early tomorrow
morning along the frontal boundary in the vicinity of the
Louisiana Gulf Coast in a broad area of upper-level lift
associated with the right entrance region of an upper-level jet
streak and lift to the east-northeast. Generally favor a non-GFS
solution with a further south position of the front due to outflow
from today's activity and highest rain chances closer to the Gulf
Coast with some activity bleeding over into our southern
counties. A separate area of mid-level frontogenesis and moisture
will located further north closer to the I-20 corridor, which
could allow for some rain to fall there as well if low-level dry
air can be overcome. So, kept a mention of scattered showers in as
far north as Birmingham with lower confidence. Weak elevated
instability will be in place across the southern counties which
could allow for a rumble or two of thunder, but any surface-based
instability and potential for any stronger storms should remain
south of the forecast area. Also not expecting any heavy rain
during this time. Temperatures will hinge on precipitation and
lingering cool air. Will indicate highs in the upper 50s to low
60s north and mid to upper 60s south (low 70s possible far
southeast), but confidence is low as some high-res guidance keeps
temperatures across the north in the low 50s.
Some showers may linger near the I-20 corridor through the
evening. Focus for showers shifts to the northwest after midnight
as low-level isentropic lift strengthens ahead of the cutoff low
ejecting out of West Texas, and as the front lifts northward as a
warm front. This also results in a non-diurnal temperature trend
with temperatures steady/rising slightly after midnight.
Models indicate a west to east band of moderate to heavy rainfall
developing along and north of the warm front as unseasonably high
PWATs intersect the boundary. This area of heavy rain has been
trending northward, so the main threat of flooding seems to be
shifting north of the forecast area, but will continue to
monitor. The strong shortwave will move through the area late
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning while getting squeezed between
the subtropical ridge and troughing over the northeastern CONUS.
Models seem to be converging on the forecast area being in the
warm sector of a surface low moving across northern Mississippi
and middle Tennessee with low to mid 60s dewpoints and a few
hundred J/kg of CAPE ahead of a cold front/dry-line like feature.
There are still some key differences regarding the strength of the
low and associated backing of the low-level winds, and how soon
the low-level winds will veer out relative to the instability
arriving. If trends continue, a threat for isolated tornadoes late
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could be added to the HWO in
later issuances given favorable wind profiles for mini-supercells.
Thursday through Sunday:
One dry day is expected on Thursday between systems with the only
forecast challenge being a possible wedge briefly trying to build
in. Focus then shifts to the next southern-stream trough ejecting
out of the western CONUS, and eventually phasing with a deep
northern stream trough engulfing almost the entire CONUS. Another
cold front looks to move into the area during the Friday/Friday
night timeframe. Any threat for severe weather will depend on the
degree of moisture return in the wake of Wednesday's system.
Models and ensembles have had many varying solutions for this
weekend regarding whether the front moves through, stalls, or
retreats off to the northwest, and whether the expected outbreak
of arctic air catches up to precipitation along the front. It's
certainly too early to use any deterministic model runs at this
point. General consensus continues to support only mentioning
liquid precipitation through the current forecast period at this
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For COFFEE County
1200 AM CST MON DEC 18 2017
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DOTHAN LGT RAIN 67 67 100 S13 30.17F
6HR MIN TEMP: 65; 6HR MAX TEMP: 67; 6HR PCP: 0.01;
OZARK CLOUDY 68 66 94 S10 30.13F
6HR MIN TEMP: 65; 6HR MAX TEMP: 67; 6HR PCP: 0.01;
TROY CLOUDY 66 66 100 SW5 30.15S
6HR MIN TEMP: 65; 6HR MAX TEMP: 68; 6HR PCP: TRACE;
EUFAULA CLOUDY 67 66 97 CALM 30.14R
6HR MIN TEMP: 64; 6HR MAX TEMP: 68; 6HR PCP: 0.01;
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1200am CST, Monday December 18, 2017
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 46 degrees north, near 48 degrees central, and near 62 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, cloudy central, and fog south. In the north, relative humidity is near 100%, and the dew point is near 46 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 96%, and the dew point is near 47 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 96%, and the dew point is near 61 degrees. Visibility is less than one mile south. Winds are calm north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm south, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to fog. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 68 degrees at Ozark. The lowest temperature is 44 degrees at Gadsden.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For COFFEE County
Hazardous report currently not available
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For COFFEE County, Alabama
843 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017
REST OF TONIGHT
Warmer. Rain likely. Patchy fog after
midnight. Near steady temperature in the mid 60s. South winds
5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
MONDAY Patchy fog in the morning. Rain likely. Highs in the
lower 70s. West winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
MONDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of rain in the
evening. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after
midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
TUESDAY Partly sunny. Areas of fog in the morning. Highs in
the upper 70s. Southwest winds up to 5 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog through the night.
Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Lows
in the lower 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent.
WEDNESDAY Patchy fog in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms
likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of precipitation
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms
likely in the evening. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
THURSDAY Mostly sunny. Highs around 70.
THURSDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming
mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
FRIDAY Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of precipitation
FRIDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of
precipitation 30 percent.
SATURDAY Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 70. Chance of precipitation
SATURDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent.
SUNDAY Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers. Highs in the
upper 60s. Chance of showers 30 percent.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
DEC 23-27 DEC 25-DEC 31 DEC DEC-FEB
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Normal Below Above Above
Precipitation: Above Normal Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Monday December 18, 2017 the 352th Day of Year
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:47 EST Set 17:43 EST
Transit Meridian 12:45 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:20 EST Ends 18:10 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
A tornado swept across Jackson County, Williamson County and Franklin
County in southern Illinois killing eleven persons. (David Ludlum)
A heavy lake-effect snow blanketed the southern and southeast shores of
Lake Michigan leaving up to 22 inches of snow at Valparaiso IND. (David
Record cold hit the north central states. At Havre MT the mercury plunged
to a record reading of 34 degrees below zero. (Sandra and TI Richard
Sanders - 1987)
A storm over southern California left up to 16 inches of snow in the
mountains and upper deserts, with 13 inches reported at Lancaster. Edwards
Air Force Base was closed, and Interstate 5 was closed from Castaic to the
Tehachapis Mountains. (18th-19th) (The Weather Channel)
A strong winter storm, which developed off the coast of New Jersey and
moved out to sea, lashed the northeastern U.S. with high winds, heavy rain,
and heavy snow. The storm left snowfall amounts of up to 30 inches in
Vermont, 24 inches in Massachusetts, and 20 inches in New Hampshire. The
highest rainfall amounts approached four inches in southern New England,
where winds gusted to 70 mph. (Storm Data)
A weakening storm moved into the Rocky Mountain Region producing six inches
of snow at the Platoro Reservoir in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. The
storm then spread rain and drizzle across the Southern High Plains into the
Middle Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms over Texas. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
Warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. while cool weather prevailed
across the eastern states. Sheridan WY, with a record warm afternoon high
of 68 degrees, was seven degrees warmer than Key West FL. (The National
A winter storm moving out of the Great Plains Region spread freezing rain,
sleet and snow across parts of the southeastern U.S. Freezing rain resulted
in 170 auto accidents in the Memphis area during the evening hours.
Unseasonably warm weather continued ahead of arctic cold front. Miami FL
equalled their record for December with an afternoon high of 87 degrees.
(Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky