A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
Very dry boundary layer conditions exist over Central Alabama
tonight. The high cloudiness has thinned out significantly and
this has allowed temperatures to bottom out. With low dew points,
dropped temperatures overnight up to 5 or 6 degrees in spots and
have a range of 20 to 30 degrees. All else looks good at this time
as high pressure drifts west to east and overhead the next 12 to
Previous short-term discussion:Through Tonight.
Northerly winds have been breezy this afternoon behind the
exiting cold front, with an extensive cirrus shield. This has kept
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. For tonight, surface
high pressure will move across the area, and winds will diminish.
Upper level jet stream remains active across the southeast with a
moist fetch spreading northeastward from the Pacific and across
Mexico. This will maintain the cirrus cloud cover across the area
tonight, and have adjusted temperature trends to account for
slower cooling after sunset. Clouds should thin toward sunrise to
allow for quicker cooling with temperatures falling into the upper
20s north and lower 30s south.
The only change made to the extended forecast was to increase
pops Tuesday and Wednesday to account for the wetter trend in
model solutions. No other changes were needed with this forecast
package and details in the discussion below remain valid.
Saturday through Friday.
Upper-level ridging will temporarily build over the area on
Saturday, downstream of the cutoff upper low currently over
northwest Mexico that will be ejecting northeastward into Texas as
a shortwave trough in the southern stream. A dry air mass will
remain in place during the day on Saturday with only a steady
stream of high clouds expected. Low-level flow above the surface
will switch to southwesterly as low-level ridging moves eastward.
But at the surface, high pressure initially centered over the area
will only slowly drift eastward towards the Atlantic coast,
keeping surface winds out of the southeast, and the better warm
air advection will hold off until Saturday night. This should keep
high temperatures mainly in the 50s.
Deep layer southwesterly flow will increase substantially
Saturday night as the shortwave moves into the ArkLaTex region
with strong warm air and moisture advection as well as isentropic
lift just above the surface. However a very dry air mass will
remain at the surface. A large complex of showers will develop
over Texas and move eastward in association with a 40-50 kt LLJ,
as a weak surface low that develops along the stalled front in the
western Gulf also lifts northward. Most models agree that this
activity will remain in Mississippi prior to 12Z, but with
increasing moisture in the west and the potential for either
isolated to scattered showers ahead of this activity, or a
possible faster timing, have kept in some lower rain chances in
the west after 3AM. This also agrees with SREF probabilities and
other ensembles. A strong warm nose aloft will keep precipitation
all liquid. Low temperatures will probably be reached between
midnight and 3 AM, before rising slightly towards sunrise. Mainly
upper 30s to low 40s are expected, with some low to mid 30s in the
cooler northeastern areas.
The negatively tilted shortwave will lift quickly off to the
northeast, reaching the Ohio Valley by midday while grazing
northwest Alabama during the morning hours. The remnants of
Saturday night's activity should move into western and northern
portions of the area Sunday morning, maintained by the low level
jet. It may weaken with eastward extent by midday as the LLJ
weakens and the upper-level forcing lifts to the northeast. As
this rain falls into the remnant dry air mass at the surface,
temperatures may remain in the 40s across the northwest due to
evaporative cooling. The main focus for shower activity will shift
to the southwest counties by Sunday afternoon, as additional
activity developing near the coast lifts northeastward in the deep
layer southwesterly flow amid increasing deep layer moisture and
PWATs. A surface warm front will also attempt to lift northward,
but its northward progression will be slowed initially due to
evaporative cooling as precipitation falls into the dry air mass
north of the front. This will all result in a tricky temperatures
forecast, as highs may struggle to reach 50 across the far north,
while reaching the upper 60s in the far southeast. Models indicate
very little in the way of MUCAPE and will keep a mention of
thunder out of the forecast for this period.
Sunday night through Monday night:
The ECMWF has generally trended towards the GFS/Canadian and EPS
ensemble mean with keeping more of a phased trough over the Desert
Southwest and keeping a moist southwesterly flow across the area
for the first half of next week. Yesterday's 12Z ECMWF trended
wetter but then tonight's 00Z run trended drier at least for the
Monday/Monday night period, with uncertainty over the position of
the front and dry air to its north. Overall though, confidence is
increasing that this period will be wet and unsettled, and will
stick closer to the GFS/Canadian during this period which also has
the support of the EPS ensemble mean. Continued deep layer
southwesterly flow between the trough over the Desert Southwest
and a strong ridge near the Bahamas will allow the warm front to
move northward Sunday night into Monday, and temperatures should
rise through the night Sunday night in most locations. Deep layer
moisture, isentropic lift, and broad upper-level lift from the
right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak will promote
high rain chances. Some weak instability will develop which will
allow for a couple thunderstorms as well. Depending on
precipitation trends, if some pockets of heating develop highs
could be near 70 in the southern counties Monday afternoon.
Couldn't rule out an isolated strong strong to severe storm with
gusty winds/small hail during this time period in the southern
counties given some instability and deep layer shear. But
warm/saturated profiles aloft, limited low-level shear, and lack
of a focusing mechanism are expected to prevent any organized
threat of severe storms.
PWATs in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range for a somewhat prolonged period
of time, near the climatological maximum for December, and
unidrectional flow does raise some concern for cell training and
locally heavy rainfall. Current WPC QPF indicates area-averaged
amounts of 1 to 2.6 inches through Tuesday. Flash flood guidance
is high due to recent dry conditions with drought currently in
place across the western counties. Streamflows are running below
normal in the west and near normal elsewhere. Most areas could
handle 1 or 2 rounds of heavy rain, but will have to monitor for
flooding if multiple rounds of heavy rain occur. Expect some
localized flooding in poor drainage areas, but confidence in any
widespread flooding is too low to mention in the HWO at this time.
Will continue to monitor QPF trends closely, however.
Tuesday through Wednesday:
Models disagree on whether the trough will push eastward across
the area in one or 2 pieces. Will continue to go with the GFS idea
of a cold frontal passage on Tuesday with drier air for
Wednesday, but the latest ECMWF and its ensemble has trended
wetter for Wednesday so will have to see it that trend continues.
Similar to Monday a conditional potential for an isolated strong
to severe storm exists along the front if some instability
develops, but weak/veered low-level flow does not appear
supportive of any organized potential.
Models seem to be coming into better agreement on another trough
moving into the western CONUS during the second half of the week,
with a strong cold front moving through on Friday. Still too far
out to determine any details regarding whether or not there will
be any threat of severe weather. Also, at this time,
precipitation is expected to move out before any cold air arrives,
but this is still a week away.
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CLARKE County
200 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2017
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GREENVILLE CLOUDY 32 25 75 N3 30.25S
EVERGREEN CLOUDY 31 28 89 CALM 30.27R
ATMORE* N/A N/A N/A N/A N7 N/A
ANDALUSIA/OPP PTCLDY 37 28 70 N3 30.25S
ANDALUSIA* N/A 34 30 86 N3 30.24R
FLORALA APT CLOUDY 38 30 73 N6 30.27S
FLORALA* N/A 37 30 75 NW2 31.01R
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 200am CST, Saturday December 16, 2017
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 23 degrees north, near 27 degrees central, and near 39 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, cloudy central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 96%, and the dew point is near 22 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 24 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 70%, and the dew point is near 30 degrees. There is patchy fog north. Winds are calm north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northeast at 6 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The wind chill is near 35 degrees south. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 43 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 22 degrees at Gadsden.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CLARKE County, AL
1213 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
DAY ONE This Afternoon and Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Saturday through Thursday
Rain is expected to spread across the region Sunday and continue
through Thursday. Embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms will
lead to brief heavy downpours. Several inches of rain could fall
during this period leading to ponding of water in low lying areas.
Widespread and potentially dense fog development could greatly
limit visibility and lead to hazardous driving conditions Sunday
night and Monday night.
There is a moderate risk for rip currents along area beaches
Sunday through Tuesday.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Thursday.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For CLARKE County, Alabama
1042 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
REST OF TONIGHT
Colder. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.
North winds up to 5 mph.
SATURDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. East winds up to
SATURDAY NIGHT Not as cool. Mostly cloudy. Near steady
temperature in the mid 40s. Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
SUNDAY Warmer, cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the morning,
then rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s.
Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of showers 90 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT Warmer. Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Near steady temperature in the mid
60s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation
MONDAY Areas of fog in the morning. Showers likely and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Near steady temperature in the upper
60s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
MONDAY NIGHT Showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Near steady temperature in the lower
60s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
TUESDAY Areas of fog in the morning. Cloudy with chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower
70s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
TUESDAY NIGHT Cooler. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance
of rain showers. Lows in the lower 50s.
WEDNESDAY Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the mid 60s.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s.
THURSDAY Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the upper 60s.
THURSDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
FRIDAY Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. Highs
in the mid 60s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
DEC 21-25 DEC 23-29 DEC DEC-FEB
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Normal Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Saturday December 16, 2017 the 350th Day of Year
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:46 EST Set 17:42 EST
Transit Meridian 12:44 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:19 EST Ends 18:09 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
New England experienced one of their coldest days of record. At noon on
that bitterly cold Wednesday the mercury stood at four degrees below at
Boston, 15 degrees below at Norfolk CT, and 17 degrees below at Hanover NH.
The temperature at Boston was 12 degrees below zero by sunset. Gale force
winds accompanied the severe cold, and that night a great New York City
fire destroyed much of the financial district. (David Ludlum)
A bill was introduced in the House of Representatives, 41st Congress,
calling for the taking [of] meteorological observations at the military
stations in the interior of the continent, and for giving notice on the
northern lakes and Atlantic seaboard of the approach and force of storms.
This would be signed in to law February 9, 1870, by President Grant,
establishing what would come to be called the National Weather Service. You
can see the actual bill on-line at:
An ice jam closed the Ohio River between Warsaw KY and Rising Sun IN. The
thirty foot high ice jam held for 58 days, and backed up the river a
distance of 100 miles. (David Ludlum)
A Pacific storm battered the coast of California with rain and high winds,
and dumped heavy snow on the mountains of California. Winds along the coast
gusted to 70 mph at Point Arguello, and winds in the Tehachapi Mountains of
southern California gusted to 100 mph at Wheeler Ridge. Snowfall totals
ranged up to 24 inches at Mammoth Mountain. Snow fell for two minutes at
Malibu Beach, and Disneyland was closed due to the weather for only the
second time in twenty-four years. A winter storm which began in the
Southern Rockies four days earlier finished its course producing snow and
high winds in New England. Snowfall totals ranged up to 19 inches at
Blanchard ME. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Fairbanks AK reported freezing rain and record warm temperatures. The
afternoon high of 41 degrees was 43 degrees above normal. Snow and high
winds continued to plague the mountains of southern California. Mount
Wilson CA reported two inches of rain in six hours during the early
morning, and a storm total of more than 3.50 inches of rain. (The National
Fifty-seven cities from the Southern and Central Plains to the Appalachians
reported record low temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE
with a reading of 17 degrees below zero. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region
produced 18 inches of snow at Syracuse NY, and 30 inches at Carlisle IND.
Low pressure brought heavy snow to northern New England, with 18 inches
reported at Derby VT and Saint Johnsbury VT. (The National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky