A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
Today and Tonight.
Central AL remains on the eastward edge of an upper level ridge
today and tonight as a longwave trough slides just off the East
Coast. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary is stretched through the
Southern Appalachians and into North and North-Central AL for most
of the day. Models pick up on the wind shift and the isodrosotherm
gradient, so we'll at least see a moisture contrast across Central
AL today even if nothing meaningful changes with the temperatures.
This boundary setup should keep much of the afternoon convection
limited to areas generally south of I-20, with the best chances in
the far southern counties and along I-85, coinciding with the best
As we get into the evening hours, we should see an overall decrease
in shower/storm activity. However, it's worth noting that the NMM
tries to develop some convection in Western AL that is likely
building off an outflow from storms associated with a shortwave-
induced MCS in the Mid-MS Valley that global and regional models
pick up on (also highlighted in the Day 1 SPC outlook). The impulse
really doesn't make it into our area until tomorrow, so it's not
overly concerning from a severe standpoint. Considering the
uncertainty with outflow-initiated convection in general, I'll only
carry chance PoPs in the western portions of Central AL through
roughly 10pm for now. Any lingering storms should clear out during
the overnight hours.
Temperature-wise, expect near-normal diurnal ranges with highs near
90s and lows in the low 70s.
Thursday through Tuesday.
A split upper-level flow pattern will temporarily be in place
across the eastern CONUS Thursday with a broad trough/area of
cyclonic flow aloft over the Southeast and a ridge over the
eastern Great Lakes. This will be downstream of a strong
northwesterly upper-level jet streak nosing into the Central
Plains, with a vigorous shortwave located to its north over the
Midwest and a strong ridge to its south centered near the Four
Corners. At the surface, high pressure will be building down the
lee of the Appalachians while a weak wave of low pressure develops
near the Gulf Coast. This will will result in easterly winds
building into East Alabama with an increase in low-level moisture
and convergent flow. Meanwhile the stalled frontal boundary will
become more diffuse. Models have trended quicker with moisture
return, and combined with a weak vort max aloft coverage of
afternoon showers/storms looks to be greater than previously
expected. Therefore PoPs were raised especially in the
southern/eastern counties. Activity should mainly diminish after
sunset, but there is a slight chance that remnants of convection
developing upstream could reach the northwest counties after
By Friday the southern stream upper trough will push off to the
east as the ridge over the Southern Plains begins to build
westward. The northern stream shortwave with embedded upper low
will move into Wisconsin. 500mb heights will rise over Central
Alabama with associated synoptic-scale subsidence, while 700mb
temperatures warming to +10 to +11C will result in increased
capping. This may suppress diurnal convection except in the
southeast counties. However, will keep in at least a slight chance
everywhere given available PWATs and the potential for lingering
boundaries. Strengthening northwest flow aloft results in 0-6 km
bulk shear values around 35 kts with increasing mid-level lapse
rates. There will be a conditional risk of an isolated strong to
severe storm Friday afternoon if convective initiation can occur.
Low-level flow will become westerly over West Alabama, with
trajectories originating from a very hot air mass over the
Southern Plains. This will result in heat index values around 105
degrees, and this threat will be added to the HWO.
One or more MCSs/strong to severe clusters of storms are expected
to develop off to our north Friday afternoon/evening due to
forcing associated with the upper low and a cold front at the
surface. A "ring of fire" type pattern will be in place around the
southern Plains ridge and associated strong capping/EML. The best
height falls/forcing will remain northeast of our area. There is
the possibility that some of this activity could at least clip our
northeast counties after midnight, but models disagree on this.
There is the possibility that this activity could be strong to
severe given the deep layer shear/lapse rates, but given great
uncertainty in the track/strength of this activity and the
overnight time frame, confidence is too low to mention in the HWO
for Friday night.
Troughing continues to amplify over the eastern CONUS on Saturday
as a cold front approaches from the north. NAM/GFS wind fields
appear contaminated by convective feedback, but even the ECMWF
shows northwesterly 0-6km bulk shear values greater than 40 kts
over Central Alabama, which are very unusual for late July. Given
the presence of a moist and unstable air mass and favorable lapse
rates, this will result in the potential for strong to severe
storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail. However, the
big caveat is what impact convection late Friday night continuing
into Saturday morning will have on available instability. Both the
GFS and ECMWF show a decent amount of QPF between 12 and 18Z
Saturday morning. This could contaminate what would otherwise be a
favorable northwest flow severe event. Therefore, while a threat
of severe storms will be added to the HWO, will keep it as a low
confidence threat for now. Will also note that there will be some
SRH present, and given the deep layer shear values the
possibility of a tornado cannot be ruled out. But again given the
low confidence associated with the potential for disruptive
morning convection, will not mention this particular threat in the
HWO at this time. Also, if a cold pool does not form in the
morning, heat index readings could reach 105 as well.
The eastern CONUS trough will remain the main player in the rest
of the extended forecast period. Its placement will have a big
impact on temperatures and dew points. Moisture wrapping around
the trough may be enough to spark some showers/storms at times
Sunday through Tuesday.
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CHILTON County
800 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2018
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BIRMINGHAM PTSUNNY 78 73 84 W3 30.03S
MONTGOMERY CLOUDY 76 74 93 W6 30.01R
SHELBY CO ARPT FAIR 76 73 91 W3 30.02R
MAXWELL AFB CLOUDY 76 74 93 NW3 30.00R
GREENVILLE CLOUDY 73 72 94 CALM 30.01R FOG
SELMA PTSUNNY 77 72 83 W3 30.01R
PRATTVILLE CLOUDY 75 74 97 CALM 30.00S
BESSEMER FAIR 76 74 93 W3 30.03R
TALLADEGA CLOUDY 76 76 100 CALM 30.01S FOG
PELL CITY SUNNY 77 77 100 CALM 30.01S
MARION FAIR 76 74 93 W3 30.01S
SYLACAUGA CLOUDY 75 75 100 CALM 30.02S FOG
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 800am CDT, Wednesday July 18, 2018
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 77 degrees north, near 78 degrees central, and near 79 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, partly sunny central, and partly sunny south. In the north, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 75 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 84%, and the dew point is near 73 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 76 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress north, no stress central, and no stress south. There is patchy fog north. Winds are from the east at 3 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 3 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 3 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 81 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 74 degrees at Troy and Alexander City.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CHILTON County, AL
601 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018
DAY ONE Today and Tonight.
Patchy fog will reduce visibilities below one mile at times through
9 AM this morning, mainly along and east of a line from Warrior to
Montgomery to Troy.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Thursday through Tuesday.
Heat index readings will be around 105 degrees on Friday in western
portions of Central Alabama.
There is the potential for severe storms on Saturday. At this time
the main threat is damaging winds.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For CHILTON County, Alabama
830 AM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018
Partly cloudy. Patchy fog early in the morning. Slight
chance of thunderstorms late in the morning. Chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Light
winds becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain
TONIGHT Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in
the evening. Lows in the lower 70s. Light winds.
THURSDAY Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly
cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Light
winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
THURSDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the lower 70s. Light winds.
FRIDAY Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Light winds.
FRIDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy with slight chance of thunderstorms
in the evening, then mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms
after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
SATURDAY Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
SATURDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.
SUNDAY Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
SUNDAY NIGHT Mostly clear. Lows around 70.
MONDAY Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 90s.
MONDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.
TUESDAY Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
JUL 23-27 JUL 25-JUL 31 JUL JUL-SEP
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Normal Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Normal Normal
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Wednesday July 18, 2018 the 199th Day of Year
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:51 EDT Set 20:57 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:24 EDT Ends 21:24 EDT
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
JULY 18TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
A cloudburst in West Virginia along the small creeks in Wirt County,
Jackson County and Wood County claimed twenty lives. Rockport WV reported
nineteen inches of rain in two hours and ten minutes that Thursday evening.
Tygart Creek rose 22 feet in one hour, and villages were swept away on
Tygart, Slate, Tucker, and Sandy Creeks. (The Weather Channel)
A record deluge occurred at Smethport in northern Pennsylvania, with 30.7
inches in just six hours. The downpours and resultant flooding in
Pennsylvania were devastating. (David Ludlum)
One of the most "photo-genic" tornadoes touched down in the northern
suburbs of Minneapolis MN during the late afternoon. The very slow moving
tornado actually appeared live on the evening news by way of an aerial
video taken by the KARE-TV helicopter crew. The tornado, unlike most, was
quite the prima donna, staying visible to tens of thousands of persons for
thirty minutes. It was moderate in intensity, with winds of 113-157 mph,
and caused 650 thousand dollars damage. (Storm Data)
Cool weather prevailed in the western U.S. Seven cities reported record low
temperatures for the date, including Alamosa CO with a reading of 38
degrees. The low of 52 degrees at Bakersfield CA was a record for July. Up
to eight inches of snow covered the Northern Sierra Nevada Range of
California from a storm the previous day. During that storm, winds gusting
to 52 mph at Slide Mountain NV produced a wind chill reading of 20 degrees
below zero. Susanville CA reached 17 degrees that previous day, Blue Canyon
CA dipped to a July record of 36 degrees, and the high of 44 degrees at
Klamath Falls OR smashed their previous record for July by ten degrees.
(The National Weather Summary)
Sweltering heat continued in California, with record highs of 111 degrees
at Redding and 112 degrees at Sacramento. Death Valley CA hit 127 degrees.
Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central Plains Region
produced baseball size hail at Kimball NE, wind gusts to 79 mph at Colby
KS, and six inches of rain near Lexington NE. (The National Weather
Summary) (Storm Data)
Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, northern Texas and
Arkansas during the afternoon, and into the night. Thunderstorms produced
baseball size hail at Stamford TX, and wind gusts to 92 mph near
Throckmorton TX. Record heat continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ
reported a record high of 115 degrees, and a 111 degree reading at Midland
TX was second only to their all-time record high of 112 degrees established
sixteen days earlier. (The National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky