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Cherokee County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...

The active sea breeze boundary has moved northward to near
TCL/BHM/ANB early this evening. Therefore, the main focus for the
convection southward has moved on. 20 pop southeast appears good.
Although there is a precipitable water minimum right across the
center of Central Alabama, there is a good gradient on the west
and north sides. SBCAPES remain in the 2500-300 range, Downdraft 
CAPE around 1000 due to the drier air, numerous low level focusing
mechanisms, and some low level convergence will keep thunderstorms
ongoing west and north for the next few hours. The stronger storms
will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 50 mph, deadly
lightning, small hail, and brief heavy rainfall.

The remainder of the previous discussion still looks on track with
the storms diminishing through the evening. After midnight and
before sunrise, the potential for redevelopment of some showers
and storms will be possible northwest and southeast. 

75

Previous short-term discussion:
Numerous showers and thunderstorms ongoing along and south of the
I-85 corridor where precipitable water values are near 2.0 inches.
Expect the highest overall coverage to remain in this area through
the remainder of the afternoon. Looking to the west, scattered
storms continue to develop across east Mississippi and will slowly
track eastward into west Alabama as the day goes on. Therefore, increased
pops into the 30-40% range for the west/northwest counties. It
appears that the best chance for stronger storms will be across
the northwest where DCAPE values are greater than 1000 J/kg. The
microburst potential has increased to High in this area as well.
As a result, isolated wind gusts of 40-50+ mph is possible through
9 PM. Daytime convection should gradually wane through the 
evening.

Still expecting a bit of a lull through much of the overnight
period, but some showers/storms may work into the northern
counties by sunrise Friday as a front approaches the area. 
Although widespread fog and low clouds aren't expected tonight, 
local development is possible in areas that receive rain today. 

19

.LONG TERM...
Friday to Wednesday.

A shortwave trough will be moving through the Corn Belt on Friday,
with the base of the trough extending southwards towards Central
Alabama, resulting in cyclonic WSW flow aloft. Latest CAMs are in
fairly good agreement that convection will develop near a cold
front over the Ozarks tonight, reaching the Mid-South by Friday
morning. Convection propagating along an associated outflow
boundary is expected to move into our northwest counties by Friday
afternoon. Still some disagreement as is typical regarding timing
and how far south it will make it as it moves into a drier air 
mass at mid-levels, but PoPs were increased for areas along and 
north of I-20. Flow through the column/shear will be weak, and 
mid-level lapse rates will be less than 6 C/km. CAPE values aren't
excessive, but the convection will encounter some higher DCAPE 
once it reaches the I-20 corridor. Forecast microburst parameter 
values will be in the low category. Except some of the storms to 
be strong with gusty winds and heavy downpours. Can't completely 
rule out an isolated severe storm, but chances are too low to 
mention in the HWO. Additional convection associated with the sea 
breeze will also lift into our southeast counties due to low-level
onshore flow. PoPs Friday night are somewhat uncertain as they 
will be dependent on the placement of the outflow boundary, and 
how much the atmosphere stabilizes to the north of it. But with 
weak lift and plentiful moisture chances of showers/storms will 
continue overnight across the north, while the frontal boundary 
stalls near the KY/TN border. 

The shortwave will become positively tilted as it moves through
the eastern CONUS Saturday. The front will become quasi-stationary
over TN. Weak height falls associated with the shortwave and an 
axis of PWATs at or above 2 inches will result in good coverage of
showers/storms continuing. Locally heavy rainfall will be 
possible as well. Shortwave ridging will temporarily move over the
area on Sunday, but above normal PWATs will persist resulting in
continued above normal rain chances. 

Another shortwave and associated surface low will move eastwards
through the Midwest/Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday, phasing
with an anomalously deep upper low centered near Hudson Bay. Moist
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching seasonably strong cold
front will result in continued above normal rain chances, but bulk
shear values remain low. Models continue to indicate the 
potential for a frontal passage by mid to late week and an 
associated drier/refreshing air mass as another shortwave 
reinforces the eastern CONUS trough, with dew points and low 
temperatures in the 60s. 

32/Davis

Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CHEROKEE County
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018
NORTH ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
MUSCLE SHOALS  FAIR      74  70  87 SE6       30.12R                  
HUNTSVILLE     CLOUDY    74  74 100 CALM      30.13R                  
DECATUR        FAIR      73  71  93 CALM      30.14R                  
HALEYVILLE     FAIR      72  69  90 S5        30.17R                  
GADSDEN        FAIR      79  75  87 CALM      30.15R                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1000pm CDT, Thursday August 16, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 73 degrees north, near 81 degrees central, and near 80 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, mostly cloudy central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 71 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 74%, and the dew point is near 72 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 87%, and the dew point is near 76 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress north, no stress central, and no stress south. Winds are calm north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 10 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 6 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 82 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 73 degrees at Troy, Decatur, and Auburn.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CHEROKEE County, AL

341 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

 DAY ONE  Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For CHEROKEE County, Alabama
1002 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

TONIGHT
Partly cloudy late in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms late in the night. Lows around 70. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Thunderstorms likely. Lows around 70. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

SATURDAY
Thunderstorms likely. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.

SUNDAY
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 70.

MONDAY
Thunderstorms likely. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 70.

TUESDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s.

WEDNESDAY
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s.

THURSDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   AUG 22-26    AUG 24-30    AUG       AUG-OCT                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below       Normal      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Thursday August 16, 2018 the 228th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 13.420000
Distance 0.999717 AU
Rise 07:11 EDT Set 20:32 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:52 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:46 EDT Ends 20:57 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

........................
AUGUST 16TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1777...
The Battle of Bennington, delayed a day by rain, was fought. The rain
delayed British reinforcements, and allowed the Vermont Militia to arrive
in time, enabling the Americans to win a victory by defeating two enemy
forces, one at a time. (David Ludlum)
...1909...
A dry spell began in San Bernardino County of southern California that
lasted until the 6th of May in 1912, a stretch of 994 days! Another dry
spell, lasting 767 days, then began in October of 1912. (The Weather
Channel)
...1916...
Altapass NC was deluged with 22.22 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish
a state record. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced
severe weather from Oklahoma to Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms
in central Illinois produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Springfield which
toppled two large beer tents at the state fair injuring 58 persons.
Thunderstorms also drenched Chicago IL with 2.90 inches of rain, making
August 1987 their wettest month of record. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)
...1988...
Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe
weather from North Dakota to Lower Michigan during the day. Nine tornadoes
were sighted in North Dakota, and thunderstorms also produced hail three
inches in diameter at Lakota ND, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Marais MI.
Thirty-seven cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high
temperatures for the date, including Rockford IL with a reading of 104
degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1989...
Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region
produced golf ball size hail at La Junta CO, Intercanyon CO, and Custer SD.
Afternoon thunderstorms over South Texas drenched Brownsville with 2.60
inches of rain. Fair skies allowed viewing of the late evening full lunar
eclipse from the Great Lakes Region to the Northern and Central Plains
Region, and across much of the western third of the country. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky