A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
Today and Tonight.
Southerly flow will develop once again today and will help push the
front back north as a warm front during the day. High res models
really produce scattered showers along the front this afternoon as
it slides north. Thinking the nest chances will be across I-20
corridor and parts north. The highest and most likely areas of rain
will be along and east of I-65 in northeastern Alabama. Temperatures
will be warmest in the south where the southerly flow develops a
little quicker. The shortwave that will push the front north will
exit by Midnight, with isentropic lift developing after 3 am. This
lift will result in low clouds/fog as well as isolated light showers
anywhere across the area.
Monday through Sunday.
There are two main stories weather-wise for the extended - the above
normal temperatures and the rainfall. Synoptically, the warm front
has lifted north of the area by Monday morning, putting us well into
the warm sector ahead of the deepening trough and cold front. The
cold front is off to the northwest into Missouri, so any dynamic
forcing is limited for rain chances. This should leave Monday
mostly rain-free for Central AL, with only a slight chance in the
morning to give time for that warm front to lift out of here.
Strong ridging is in place to our south and east, leading to
deep/moist southerly flow.
First, the rain - we remain in the warm sector with really only the
possibility of isentropic lift to spark afternoon showers Tuesday
and Tuesday night. As we get into Wednesday, models are in good
agreement that the cold front has pushed into North MS and Western
TN. Lift along and ahead of this front will increase rain chances
across all of Central AL, with the rain likely north of the I-20
corridor Wednesday afternoon and night. The biggest question, and
the focus on all forecast uncertainty from Wednesday night through
Thursday is just how far that cold front gets. The GFS pushes it
through AL on Thursday before stalling it and lifting it northward
as another effective warm front. However, the ECMWF never really
brings it very far into Central AL (maybe to I-59 corridor) before
lifting it north Thursday morning (at least 24 hours sooner than
the GFS). I've been hedging my forecast closer to the ECMWF as it
has more support from the ensembles and the Canadian. This puts me
at around a 45-55% chance of rain for most areas north of the
I-85 corridor on Thursday for my forecast, but this still factors
in the GFS possibility. If the GFS trends closer to the EC in
coming days, I can decrease those PoPs more. Thunderstorms are
possible with this system as surface instability will be more than
enough to support thunderstorm development. However, shear values
are expected to remain too low to support any organize severe
threat. The warm front should be lifted north of our area by
Friday, regardless of which model verifies, so decreasing rain
chances overall for Friday and Saturday. I have kept some mention
for chance or rain in due to isentropic lift ahead of yet another
shortwave trough. That trough will push into Saturday night into
Sunday morning, increasing rain chances again for the weekend.
Have limited the PoPs to 45-50% on this trough due to the
possibility of fluctuations in timing.
Now, for the above normal temperatures - As most have noticed, it
has been unusually warm across Central AL the past few days. I
expect that to continue with the anomalous ridge off to our south
and east advecting warm/moist air into the area. Tuesday through
Thursday, the NAEFs percentiles are highlighting 99.5th to Max
climatological values for geopotential heights, temperatures,
specific humidity, and PWATS at around 3 standard deviations above
the mean(translation -it's going to be warm and humid compared to
a typical mid to late February). Therefore, I have edged the high
temperatures up a few degrees, which will continue to put us in
potential record high territory Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. I
have included the records for our climate sites below this
discussion. Thursday's high temps are somewhat uncertain and
dependent on how the GFS trends with that frontal passage. If it
trends more with the EC and keeps the front north of us, then we
could see more near-record highs again on Thursday. If the front
pushes through Central AL, we could see a temporary cool down on
the backside of the front. For locations along and south of the
I-85 corridor, there's good chances the cold front never makes it
that far south, leading to continued above normal high
temperatures Thursday and Friday.
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CHEROKEE County
1100 AM CST SUN FEB 18 2018
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MUSCLE SHOALS FAIR 50 38 63 SE9 30.29F
HUNTSVILLE PTSUNNY 53 42 66 VRB3 30.28F
DECATUR FAIR 51 39 63 VRB5 30.30S
HALEYVILLE FAIR 55 40 56 E8 30.28F
GADSDEN FAIR 57 41 55 E9 30.28F
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1100am CST, Sunday February 18, 2018
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 51 degrees north, near 58 degrees central, and near 69 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, partly sunny central, and partly sunny south. In the north, relative humidity is near 63%, and the dew point is near 39 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 57%, and the dew point is near 43 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 78%, and the dew point is near 62 degrees. Winds are variable at 5 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are variable at 6 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 5 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 72 degrees at Dothan. The lowest temperature is 50 degrees at Muscle Shoals.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CHEROKEE County, AL
327 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018
DAY ONE Outlook through Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Monday through Saturday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For CHEROKEE County, Alabama
1130 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018
Partly cloudy late in the morning, then mostly cloudy
with rain showers likely late this afternoon. Highs in the lower
60s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
TONIGHT Cloudy. Rain showers likely in the evening, then
slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Patchy fog after
midnight. Lows in the lower 50s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance
of rain 60 percent.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY Warmer. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent
chance of rain showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning.
Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast
winds 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 60.
WEDNESDAY Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Rain showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
THURSDAY Cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
THURSDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
FRIDAY Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the mid 70s.
FRIDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
SATURDAY Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain
showers. Highs in the lower 70s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
FEB 23-27 FEB 25-MAR 3 FEB FEB-APR
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Above
Precipitation: Normal Above Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Sunday February 18, 2018 the 49th Day of Year
Distance 0.999723 AU
Rise 07:28 EST Set 18:36 EST
Transit Meridian 13:01 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:04 EST Ends 19:00 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most
severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared
to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum)
Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day
storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North
America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum)
A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope
winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY,
located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals
in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with
6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched
Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts
to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and
heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia
ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of
two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a
two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of
snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow
also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and
12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The
National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky