A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
The active sea breeze boundary has moved northward to near
TCL/BHM/ANB early this evening. Therefore, the main focus for the
convection southward has moved on. 20 pop southeast appears good.
Although there is a precipitable water minimum right across the
center of Central Alabama, there is a good gradient on the west
and north sides. SBCAPES remain in the 2500-300 range, Downdraft
CAPE around 1000 due to the drier air, numerous low level focusing
mechanisms, and some low level convergence will keep thunderstorms
ongoing west and north for the next few hours. The stronger storms
will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 50 mph, deadly
lightning, small hail, and brief heavy rainfall.
The remainder of the previous discussion still looks on track with
the storms diminishing through the evening. After midnight and
before sunrise, the potential for redevelopment of some showers
and storms will be possible northwest and southeast.
Previous short-term discussion:
Numerous showers and thunderstorms ongoing along and south of the
I-85 corridor where precipitable water values are near 2.0 inches.
Expect the highest overall coverage to remain in this area through
the remainder of the afternoon. Looking to the west, scattered
storms continue to develop across east Mississippi and will slowly
track eastward into west Alabama as the day goes on. Therefore, increased
pops into the 30-40% range for the west/northwest counties. It
appears that the best chance for stronger storms will be across
the northwest where DCAPE values are greater than 1000 J/kg. The
microburst potential has increased to High in this area as well.
As a result, isolated wind gusts of 40-50+ mph is possible through
9 PM. Daytime convection should gradually wane through the
Still expecting a bit of a lull through much of the overnight
period, but some showers/storms may work into the northern
counties by sunrise Friday as a front approaches the area.
Although widespread fog and low clouds aren't expected tonight,
local development is possible in areas that receive rain today.
Friday to Wednesday.
A shortwave trough will be moving through the Corn Belt on Friday,
with the base of the trough extending southwards towards Central
Alabama, resulting in cyclonic WSW flow aloft. Latest CAMs are in
fairly good agreement that convection will develop near a cold
front over the Ozarks tonight, reaching the Mid-South by Friday
morning. Convection propagating along an associated outflow
boundary is expected to move into our northwest counties by Friday
afternoon. Still some disagreement as is typical regarding timing
and how far south it will make it as it moves into a drier air
mass at mid-levels, but PoPs were increased for areas along and
north of I-20. Flow through the column/shear will be weak, and
mid-level lapse rates will be less than 6 C/km. CAPE values aren't
excessive, but the convection will encounter some higher DCAPE
once it reaches the I-20 corridor. Forecast microburst parameter
values will be in the low category. Except some of the storms to
be strong with gusty winds and heavy downpours. Can't completely
rule out an isolated severe storm, but chances are too low to
mention in the HWO. Additional convection associated with the sea
breeze will also lift into our southeast counties due to low-level
onshore flow. PoPs Friday night are somewhat uncertain as they
will be dependent on the placement of the outflow boundary, and
how much the atmosphere stabilizes to the north of it. But with
weak lift and plentiful moisture chances of showers/storms will
continue overnight across the north, while the frontal boundary
stalls near the KY/TN border.
The shortwave will become positively tilted as it moves through
the eastern CONUS Saturday. The front will become quasi-stationary
over TN. Weak height falls associated with the shortwave and an
axis of PWATs at or above 2 inches will result in good coverage of
showers/storms continuing. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible as well. Shortwave ridging will temporarily move over the
area on Sunday, but above normal PWATs will persist resulting in
continued above normal rain chances.
Another shortwave and associated surface low will move eastwards
through the Midwest/Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday, phasing
with an anomalously deep upper low centered near Hudson Bay. Moist
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching seasonably strong cold
front will result in continued above normal rain chances, but bulk
shear values remain low. Models continue to indicate the
potential for a frontal passage by mid to late week and an
associated drier/refreshing air mass as another shortwave
reinforces the eastern CONUS trough, with dew points and low
temperatures in the 60s.
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CHEROKEE County
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MUSCLE SHOALS FAIR 74 70 87 SE6 30.12R
HUNTSVILLE CLOUDY 74 74 100 CALM 30.13R
DECATUR FAIR 73 71 93 CALM 30.14R
HALEYVILLE FAIR 72 69 90 S5 30.17R
GADSDEN FAIR 79 75 87 CALM 30.15R
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1000pm CDT, Thursday August 16, 2018
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 73 degrees north, near 81 degrees central, and near 80 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, mostly cloudy central, and fair south. In the north, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 71 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 74%, and the dew point is near 72 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 87%, and the dew point is near 76 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress north, no stress central, and no stress south. Winds are calm north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 10 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 6 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 82 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 73 degrees at Troy, Decatur, and Auburn.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CHEROKEE County, AL
341 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018
DAY ONE Outlook through Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Friday through Wednesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For CHEROKEE County, Alabama
1002 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018
Partly cloudy late in the evening then becoming mostly
cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms late in the night. Lows around
70. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
FRIDAY Mostly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
then thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper
80s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
FRIDAY NIGHT Thunderstorms likely. Lows around 70. Southwest
winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
SATURDAY Thunderstorms likely. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest
winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around
SUNDAY Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the mid 80s.
SUNDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Lows around 70.
MONDAY Thunderstorms likely. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of
rain 60 percent.
MONDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Lows around 70.
TUESDAY Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.
TUESDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s.
WEDNESDAY Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s.
THURSDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
AUG 22-26 AUG 24-30 AUG AUG-OCT
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Below Normal Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Normal Normal
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Thursday August 16, 2018 the 228th Day of Year
Distance 0.999717 AU
Rise 07:11 EDT Set 20:32 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:52 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:46 EDT Ends 20:57 EDT
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
AUGUST 16TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
The Battle of Bennington, delayed a day by rain, was fought. The rain
delayed British reinforcements, and allowed the Vermont Militia to arrive
in time, enabling the Americans to win a victory by defeating two enemy
forces, one at a time. (David Ludlum)
A dry spell began in San Bernardino County of southern California that
lasted until the 6th of May in 1912, a stretch of 994 days! Another dry
spell, lasting 767 days, then began in October of 1912. (The Weather
Altapass NC was deluged with 22.22 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish
a state record. (The Weather Channel)
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced
severe weather from Oklahoma to Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms
in central Illinois produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Springfield which
toppled two large beer tents at the state fair injuring 58 persons.
Thunderstorms also drenched Chicago IL with 2.90 inches of rain, making
August 1987 their wettest month of record. (The National Weather Summary)
Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe
weather from North Dakota to Lower Michigan during the day. Nine tornadoes
were sighted in North Dakota, and thunderstorms also produced hail three
inches in diameter at Lakota ND, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Marais MI.
Thirty-seven cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high
temperatures for the date, including Rockford IL with a reading of 104
degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region
produced golf ball size hail at La Junta CO, Intercanyon CO, and Custer SD.
Afternoon thunderstorms over South Texas drenched Brownsville with 2.60
inches of rain. Fair skies allowed viewing of the late evening full lunar
eclipse from the Great Lakes Region to the Northern and Central Plains
Region, and across much of the western third of the country. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky