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Calhoun County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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36 Hr. Forecast Map
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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...
Tonight through Saturday.

We are watching conditions upstream across Ohio River Valley and
westward into southern Missouri for signs of convective 
initiation. Visible satellite imagery is largely void of cumulus 
in the vicinity of a convergence zone, but the early stage of 
convective development appears to be underway just east of 
Springfield, MO. Initiation farther east toward Paducah, KY is 
behind schedule, which will impact the arrival time of storms into
the northwest part of our forecast area. Models generally suggest
the upstream convergence zone will fill in with scattered 
thunderstorms in the 00-03z time frame with potential upscale 
growth into clusters or an MCS. Our overall forecast has not 
changed for tonight into Saturday morning, but the timing has been
adjusted to show a later time of arrival. Damaging wind and large
hail appear most likely across the northwestern quarter of the 
CWA, but we will monitor short range guidance and mesoanalysis to 
see if our enhanced risk area needs to be expanded. 

The potential for severe thunderstorm development Saturday
afternoon and evening is rather unclear at this time and will 
depend on what occurs with tonight's convection. However, models 
are in general agreement that destabilization will occur across 
much of the area beneath relatively strong 500mb flow. SBCAPE 
values of 3000-4500 J/kg and deep layer shear of 45-55kt will be 
supportive of isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in 
the form of supercells or clusters. Damaging winds and quarter 
size hail appear to be the primary threats, but 0-3km SRH of 
200-300 m2/s2 may also support a conditional risk for a tornado.

87/Grantham

.LONG TERM...

Sunday through Thursday.

The main upper low, currently associated with the weather in the 
short term, will slowly slide southward on Sunday and Monday. As it 
slides south, it will weaken as well. This low will then park 
over the Southeast for the rest of the week. There are some model 
disagreement with the exact track and overall timing, but the 
pattern remains similar, so confidence is high that we will see 
above normal rain chances for much of the next work week. The Euro
places the center of the low over northern GA/AL Monday afternoon
and keeps it generally in the same location through Wednesday. 
After that the energy gets shifted to the south along the coast 
through the end of the week. Meanwhile the GFS bring the center of
the low more into northern AL/MS by Tuesday morning. The low 
spins across central AL before it weakens into more of an upper 
trough. Either scenario would keep higher than normal 
precipitation chances for the area, with the only uncertainty 
being where to put the highest chances. As for temperatures, will 
trend temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 for now and adjust 
downward if needed as we get closer and confidence of the path is 
higher. The good news is that the lows should be cooler, with the 
lower dewpoints, so the oppressive heat will not be as much of an 
issue. 

16


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CALHOUN County
700 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ANNISTON       FAIR      86  72  62 CALM      29.92S HX  92           
6HR MIN TEMP:  85; 6HR MAX TEMP:  91;                                

ALEXANDER CITY FAIR      85  80  86 SW3       29.94S HX  98           
6HR MIN TEMP:  82; 6HR MAX TEMP:  89;                                

AUBURN         NOT AVBL                                               

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 700pm CDT, Friday July 20, 2018

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 85 degrees north, near 87 degrees central, and near 87 degrees south. Current sky conditions are fair north, mostly cloudy central, and partly sunny south. In the north, relative humidity is near 72%, and the dew point is near 75 degrees. The heat index is near 93 degrees north. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 62%, and the dew point is near 73 degrees. The heat index is near 94 degrees central. In the south, relative humidity is near 67%, and the dew point is near 75 degrees. The heat index is near 96 degrees south. The livestock heat stress category is danger north, danger central, and danger south. Winds are from the south at 12 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 8 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 5 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 88 degrees at Tuscaloosa and Dothan. The lowest temperature is 85 degrees at Shelby County Airport, Decatur, and Alexander City.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CALHOUN County, AL

648 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

 DAY ONE  Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across all of Central Alabama 
late tonight and into early Saturday morning. A line of storms with 
damaging winds may enter our northern counties as early as 10 PM 
and continue southward through 7 AM Saturday. Currently the highest 
threat area appears to be along and northwest of Interstate 59, where
a more widespread damaging wind event could occur. 

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Saturday through Thursday.

Severe storms are possible again on Saturday from 4 PM to 11 PM
across all of Central Alabama. These storms may be isolated to 
scattered in nature and capable of producing damaging winds, quarter
size hail, and perhaps a tornado. Currently, forecast confidence in 
this scenario is low. 

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
tonight and Saturday.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For CALHOUN County, Alabama
702 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds around 5 mph.

SATURDAY
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. A 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening then becoming light.

MONDAY
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s.

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

WEDNESDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

THURSDAY
Thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s.

FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 90.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   JUL 26-30 JUL 28-AUG 3    JUL       JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Friday July 20, 2018 the 201th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 20.470000
Distance 0.999716 AU
Rise 06:53 EDT Set 20:56 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:54 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:26 EDT Ends 21:23 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

////////////////////////
JULY 20TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1930...
The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106
degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the
state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in
the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought
conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set
for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David
Ludlum)
...1934...
The temperature at Keokuk IA soared to 118 degrees to establish a state
record. (The Weather Channel)
...1953...
Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson ND. (The
Weather Channel)
...1986...
The temperature at Charleston SC hit 104 degrees for the second day in a
row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee WI, and
strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay
drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee
MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska MN. Thunderstorms in
north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern
Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
The temperature at Redding CA soared to an all-time record high of 118
degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New
England to southern Texas. Salem IN was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain
resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked
Wilmington DE with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period
May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over
that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had
been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in
central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours,
and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler
Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky