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Calhoun County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight. 

Fairly widespread rain event on Sunday has provided the area with a 
fairly uniform moisture level and the development of areas of dense 
fog/low clouds is pretty much across the entire area. We do have a 
frontal zone south of Montgomery but north of Troy and Eufaula. 
There is a 13 degree temperature difference between these sites. 
There will be a slow start to the diurnal temperatures this morning 
due to the low clouds and fog, but we should still get into the 50s 
and 60s north of the front and possibly near 70 degrees in the far 
southeast, including Eufaula. This slow increase in temperatures 
will also impede the initial development of additional showers and 
should be confined to generally the south today. Cannot rule out a 
thunderstorm or two in the south, especially along and south of the 
boundary. Severe is not expected. Did include intermittent drizzle 
through the morning and into the afternoon across the north, where 
showers are not anticipated, but roads could be wet due to the 
drizzle. More fog develops tonight and will once have the 
possibility of becoming dense. Have enough confidence to include in 
the HWO but not issue a dense fog advisory for Monday night yet. 
There is a slight chance that some clouds and light rain showers 
make it into the northwest by 3 am so reduced the dense wording 
there to just patchy fog and/or light rain. Better coverage is 
expected in the long term and will be discussed in that section. 

16

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Monday.

Tuesday:
Split flow pattern continues on Tuesday as the southern stream
cutoff low begins to eject northeast as a compact/potent
negatively tilted shortwave trough, Meanwhile the strong
subtropical ridge centered near Cuba continues to create southwest
flow aloft over Central Alabama, while a northern stream trough
will be located over eastern Canada. Increased southwesterly flow
ahead of the shortwave will result in an increase in moisture. A 
developing west to east band of enhanced moisture and isentropic 
lift aloft will move into the area from the southwest, to the 
north of the warm front which will start to lift northward ahead 
of developing low pressure over Texas. Best rain chances in the 
morning look to be in the west and especially northwest, with rain
becoming likely along and north of I-20 by afternoon. A few 
rumbles of thunder are possible with some weak elevated 
instability but any surface-based instability looks to hold off 
until later. Rainfall amounts through the daytime hours will be 
mainly a half inch or less. Temperatures will be impacted by 
clouds and rain north of the front, with highs in the upper 50s to
low 60s north, and near 70 in the south.

Tuesday night/Wednesday:

The shortwave trough will lift quickly northeastward towards the
vicinity of Memphis by Wednesday morning. It may de-amplify a
little as it becomes squeezed between the ridge to the south and
trough to the north, though the ECMWF shows little in the way of
weakening. High PWATs impinging on the warm front and increasing
upper-level forcing will continue to drive a west to east band of
moderate to heavy rain whose southern extent will include our
northern counties. Models continue to keep the heaviest QPF axis
and associated flash flood threat north of the forecast area, so
expect any localized flooding threat to be confined to poor
drainage areas given recent abnormally dry to drought conditions
across the area. 

A surface low will deepen some as it moves into far northern MS 
by the early morning hours. A broken line of convection will 
develop along the Pacific front extending south from the low over 
Texas, and additional scattered development will probably occur in
the broad moist warm sector ahead of the front. South of the 
shortwave, a 70-80 kt westerly mid-level speed max and 50 kt LLJ 
will be present. Shear oriented almost perpendicular to the front 
will favor a cellular convective mode, as appears evident in the 
streaks in the ECMWF QPF output. With dewpoints around 65, CAPE 
will be around 400 J/kg. A mid-level dry intrusion may also 
contribute to the release of potential instability. Overall, the 
setup appears favorable for low-topped/mini supercells in a high 
shear low CAPE environment, with the potential for a brief tornado
or two given the low-level shear and helicity. This will 
largely depend on how long surface winds can remain partially 
backed due to isallobaric forcing associated with the surface 
low. SPC has indicated a marginal risk in their Day 3 outlook, and
will add a low confidence tornado mention to the HWO given the 
potential nocturnal nature of the threat and dynamic nature of the
system. There are some timing differences with the NAM being on 
the slow side as is typical. The GFS and ECMWF indicate the 
activity moving in prior to 12z, so will start the threat around 3
AM which is technically in the Day 2 period. The threat will 
diminish later in the morning as winds quickly veer to 
southwesterly and the system moves quickly eastward, ending by 
noon if not a couple hours before. 

Wednesday night/Thursday:

Dry conditions move in quickly by later Wednesday
afternoon/Wednesday evening and continue Thursday. A weak wedge
that temporarily develops along the east coast may keep the
eastern counties a little cooler on Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday:

Attention then turns to the next southern stream trough digging
into the western CONUS, eventually phasing with a northern stream
trough and forming a deep trough across much of the CONUS,
downstream of a high amplitude ridge over the Pacific. A cold
front will approach as a surface low lifts into the Great Lakes,
with expansive precipitation along it. The GFS is more progressive
in bringing this front through the area Friday and Friday night, 
while the ECMWF stalls it across the area on Saturday, then lifts
it north of the area through Sunday, then brings it back into the
area on Monday. Meanwhile an outbreak of arctic air occurs behind
the front in association with strong high pressure over the
Plains/Midwest. The less progressive solution given by the ECMWF 
is currently favored based on ensemble output and a strong 
downstream ridge developing over the Atlantic off the Southeast 
Coast which will be amplified by latent heat release from
precipitation ahead of the trough. Will have to keep an eye on
another marginal/low instability severe threat along the front.
But the ECMWF's depiction of a narrow corridor of higher dew
points, the decelerating/stalling nature of the front, and the
amplified nature of the trough do not look particulary favorable.
Taking a look at the forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day,
uncertainty is high with the exact position of the front. This
results in various deterministic model runs with solutions ranging
from cool and dry to warm and wet and everything in between. Odds
seem to favor generally warmer conditions right now over Central
Alabama, versus any wintry mixture, at least through the daytime 
hours on Christmas.

32/Davis

Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CALHOUN County
1200 PM CST MON DEC 18 2017
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
ANNISTON       CLOUDY    57  53  86 SW7       30.20F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  47; 6HR MAX TEMP:  57;                                

ALEXANDER CITY CLOUDY    57  57 100 SW3       30.20F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  49; 6HR MAX TEMP:  57;                                

AUBURN         CLOUDY    61  58  90 NW6       30.20F                  
6HR MIN TEMP:  54; 6HR MAX TEMP:  61; 6HR PCP: TRACE;                

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1200pm CST, Monday December 18, 2017

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 54 degrees north, near 56 degrees central, and near 69 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, cloudy central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 52 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 86%, and the dew point is near 52 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 66 degrees. There is patchy fog south. Winds are from the west at 6 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 3 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 71 degrees at Brookely Field. The lowest temperature is 51 degrees at Gadsden.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CALHOUN County, AL

420 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight.

Patchy dense fog with visibilities below one mile will continue 
through 9 AM this morning across all of Central Alabama. 

Patchy dense fog with visibilities below one mile will re-develop
again tonight across all of Central Alabama.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Tuesday through Sunday.

Patchy dense fog with visibilities below one mile will be possible
through 9 AM Tuesday morning. 

There is a marginal risk of severe storms late Tuesday night and 
Wednesday morning across much of Central Alabama. A brief tornado or 
two and isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible 
between 3 AM and noon on Wednesday.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For CALHOUN County, Alabama
1202 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

TODAY
Cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain showers early in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds around 5 mph.

TONIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening then becoming light.

TUESDAY
Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Rain showers likely in the evening, then rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Near steady temperature in the upper 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Cloudy. Rain showers with thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Colder. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.

THURSDAY
Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.

FRIDAY
Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 60s.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Chance of rain 60 percent.

SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 60s.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Lows in the upper 40s.

SUNDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs around 60.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   DEC 23-27 DEC 25-DEC 31    DEC       DEC-FEB                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal        Below      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above       Normal      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Monday December 18, 2017 the 352th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -23.410000
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:47 EST Set 17:43 EST
Transit Meridian 12:45 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:20 EST Ends 18:10 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

DECEMBER 18TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1957...
A tornado swept across Jackson County, Williamson County and Franklin
County in southern Illinois killing eleven persons. (David Ludlum)
...1981...
A heavy lake-effect snow blanketed the southern and southeast shores of
Lake Michigan leaving up to 22 inches of snow at Valparaiso IND. (David
Ludlum)
...1983...
Record cold hit the north central states. At Havre MT the mercury plunged
to a record reading of 34 degrees below zero. (Sandra and TI Richard
Sanders - 1987)
...1984...
A storm over southern California left up to 16 inches of snow in the
mountains and upper deserts, with 13 inches reported at Lancaster. Edwards
Air Force Base was closed, and Interstate 5 was closed from Castaic to the
Tehachapis Mountains. (18th-19th) (The Weather Channel)
...1986...
A strong winter storm, which developed off the coast of New Jersey and
moved out to sea, lashed the northeastern U.S. with high winds, heavy rain,
and heavy snow. The storm left snowfall amounts of up to 30 inches in
Vermont, 24 inches in Massachusetts, and 20 inches in New Hampshire. The
highest rainfall amounts approached four inches in southern New England,
where winds gusted to 70 mph. (Storm Data)
...1987...
A weakening storm moved into the Rocky Mountain Region producing six inches
of snow at the Platoro Reservoir in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. The
storm then spread rain and drizzle across the Southern High Plains into the
Middle Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms over Texas. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. while cool weather prevailed
across the eastern states. Sheridan WY, with a record warm afternoon high
of 68 degrees, was seven degrees warmer than Key West FL. (The National
Weather Summary)
...1989...
A winter storm moving out of the Great Plains Region spread freezing rain,
sleet and snow across parts of the southeastern U.S. Freezing rain resulted
in 170 auto accidents in the Memphis area during the evening hours.
Unseasonably warm weather continued ahead of arctic cold front. Miami FL
equalled their record for December with an afternoon high of 87 degrees.
(Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky