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Autauga County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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Weather Summary Hourly Observations Nowcast Agricultural Weather Outlook
7 Day Forecast Medium & Long Range Outlook Almanac Historical Facts





US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...

A cold front is approaching the area from the northwest this
afternoon. Not much cloud cover (and no precip) associated with
the front as it is pushing across northern Arkansas and Tennessee.
The surface low associated with the front will push eastward
across the Central Appalachians and Delmarva tonight, with the
upper level pattern becoming more zonal. The front will slow
without a stronger upper level push and remain north of the area
tonight.  

Winds have been breezy this afternoon due to the tightened
pressure gradient, but will relax this evening. Skies will remain
mostly clear, with temperatures falling into the 30s.

14

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

The upper-level pattern will change across the area by tomorrow,
in the wake of today's clipper system. High amplitude ridging will
remain in place along the West Coast, with troughing over the
northeastern CONUS, but a positively tilted trough axis will set
up over the Desert Southwest and the Plains. Southern portions of
the trough will form a cutoff low centered over northwest Mexico
near the Gulf, while northern portions of the trough will push
eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as a shearing out
shortwave trough, in response to a strong upper low digging into
Ontario. The net result for Central Alabama will be northwesterly
upper-level flow shifting to westerly and then southwesterly
through the beginning of next week. At the surface, as mentioned
above, the front associated with today's clipper system will be
slowing stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow. A
very dry air mass will remain in place over the area with little
in the way of cloudcover expected along the front, but there will
be some cirrus across the southern counties due to the
strengthening southern stream jet. The front will result in a
temperature gradient across the area, with readings struggling to
get out of the upper 40s along the northern row of counties, while
the far southeastern counties will see highs around 60. 

The front will make another push southward Thursday night and make
it all the way through the forecast area this time, as high
pressure builds into the Southern Plains and low pressure develops
over Michigan. Northerly low-level flow behind the front will
prevent any low-level moisture return ahead of the shortwave
trough moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday. 
Therefore the shortwave will mainly just produce increased mid and
high level clouds despite favorable QG forcing for ascent. Some 
virga or a stray sprinkle is possible across the far southern 
counties, but dry air below 600 mb will prevent any measurable 
precipitation. With 925 mb temperatures falling below 0C across 
the northern counties, northwest winds, and high clouds, a cool 
day is expected with highs in the 40s north of I-85 and low 40s 
across the northern counties. A surface ridge axis will move over 
the area Friday night. This will result in almost ideal 
radiational cooling conditions with the exception being a few 
cirrus clouds. Lows will fall into the 20s in many areas with some
lower 20s possible in the typically coldest locations.

The cutoff low over northwest Mexico will eject northeastward as a
shearing shortwave trough over the weekend in response to a kicker
trough moving into the Rockies/High Plains. Southerly flow ahead
of this system will result in milder temperatures on Saturday, but
dry air will remain in place through the daytime hours. A 40-50 kt
LLJ will strengthen over Mississippi Saturday night, resulting in
increasing rain chances after midnight in the west Saturday night
due to increasing moisture/isentropic lift and passage of a warm
front aloft. PWATs increase to around 1.5 to 1.8 inches Sunday,
around the 95th percentile for December. With a 40-50 kt LLJ,
widespread soaking rains are expected. Lack of instability,
antecedent conditions, and the fairly progressive nature of the
system should prevent a flooding threat unless it slows down too
much. There is always the possibility for models to be too quick 
with ejecting a southern stream cutoff low, but the strength of 
the kicker trough and good model and ensemble agreement increases 
confidence in the timing, and PoPs were raised substantially for 
Sunday. A weak surface low may develop, while the surface warm 
front will try to lift northward into our southern counties, 
followed by the passage of a cold front. With rain falling into an
air mass with dew points in the 30s initially, northward 
progression of the warm front will likely be hampered by 
evaporative cooling processes, and may end up staying just south 
of the area. Models indicate some weak elevated instability over 
our southern counties, but surface-based instability looks 
negligible with dew points struggling to reach 60. Therefore, 
severe storms are not expected at this time, but will continue to 
monitor just in case due to the strong shear. 

Models begin to diverge Sunday night. The ECMWF is quicker with
the exit of precipitation Sunday night, but has trended towards
the GFS in maintaining southwest flow aloft ahead of the trough
over the southern High Plains. It remains quicker with the
ejection of this trough during the first half of the week, on the
fast side of its ensemble members. Will favor a slower solution
similar to the GFS and the EPS mean, given the lack of a strong
kicker in this case and strengthening ridging over the Bahamas, 
with the front stalling to the southeast of the area and post- 
frontal rains continuing under southwest flow aloft, with the 
highest chances in the southeast. Temperatures remain plenty warm 
to prevent non-liquid precipitation concerns. Dry air moves in by
mid-week.

32/Davis


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For AUTAUGA County
900 PM CST WED DEC 13 2017
CENTRAL ALABAMA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BIRMINGHAM     CLEAR     47  25  42 SW6       29.91R                  
MONTGOMERY     CLEAR     46  28  49 S9        29.94F                  
SHELBY CO ARPT CLEAR     44  28  53 VRB3      29.90R                  
MAXWELL AFB    CLEAR     45  28  51 SW5       29.92S                  
GREENVILLE     FAIR      45  27  49 SW6       29.94F                  
SELMA          FAIR      46  32  57 SW8       29.93S                  
PRATTVILLE     FAIR      46  30  52 SW5       29.93S                  
BESSEMER       FAIR      45  26  47 SW12      29.90R                  
TALLADEGA      FAIR      44  25  46 CALM      29.91R                  
PELL CITY      CLEAR     39  27  60 S5        29.90R                  
MARION         FAIR      44  30  57 SW5       29.92S                  
SYLACAUGA      FAIR      46  30  54 SW6       29.91R                  

Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 900pm CST, Wednesday December 13, 2017

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 45 degrees north, near 47 degrees central, and near 48 degrees south. Current sky conditions are clear north, clear central, and cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 49%, and the dew point is near 27 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 42%, and the dew point is near 25 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 65%, and the dew point is near 37 degrees. Winds are from the southwest at 10 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 6 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 10 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 48 degrees at Mobile. The lowest temperature is 35 degrees at Gadsden.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For AUTAUGA County, AL

337 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

 DAY ONE  Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For AUTAUGA County, Alabama
930 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

TONIGHT
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph after midnight.

FRIDAY
Cooler. Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening then becoming light.

SATURDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Not as cool. Mostly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s.

SUNDAY
Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 60. Chance of rain 80 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Warmer. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower 50s.

MONDAY
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in the lower 60s.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s.

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain. Highs in the lower 60s.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.

WEDNESDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs around 60.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   DEC 19-23    DEC 21-27    DEC       DEC-FEB                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Wednesday December 13, 2017 the 347th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -23.210000
Distance 0.999724 AU
Rise 07:44 EST Set 17:41 EST
Transit Meridian 12:42 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:17 EST Ends 18:08 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

DECEMBER 13TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1915...
A heavy snowstorm kicked off the snowiest winter in modern records for
western New England. (The Weather Channel)
...1962...
Record cold weather gripped the nation. The low temperature in Lexington, KY 
fell to -6 degrees (record low on this date), -3 at Covington and -3 at Paducah. 
Severe cold conditions went as far south as Florida with a hard freeze. Morning 
lows reached 35 degrees at Miami, 18 degrees at Tampa, and 12 degrees at 
Jacksonville. It was the coldest December weather of the 20th century and caused 
millions of dollars damage to crops and foliage. In Georgia, the morning low of 
9 degrees below zero at Blairsville established a state record for the month of 
December. 
...1987...
A major winter storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Southern
Rockies and the Southern High Plains. Snowfall totals in New Mexico ranged
up to 25 inches at Cedar Crest, with up to three feet of snow reported in
the higher elevations. Winds of 75 mph, with gusts to 124 mph, were
reported northeast of Albuquerque NM. El Paso TX was buried under 22.4
inches of snow, including a single storm record of 16.8 inches in 24 hours.
The snowfall total surpassed their previous record for an entire winter
season of 18.4 inches. Record cold was experienced the next three nights as
readings dipped into the single numbers. High winds ushering unseasonably
cold air into the southwestern U.S. gusted to 100 mph at Grapevine CA. (The
National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Low pressure off the Atlantic coast produced up to a foot of snow in
eastern Nassau County and western Suffolk County of southeastern New York
State. Mild weather prevailed across the western half of the country. Nine
cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Goodland
KS with a reading of 74 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm
Data)
...1989...
Strong northwesterly winds, ushering bitterly cold arctic air into the
central U.S., produced squalls with heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region.
Snowfall totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 24 inches at Manistique.
Nine cities in Arkansas and Texas reported record low temperatures for the
date, including Calico Rock AR with a reading of 4 degrees above zero.
(Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky